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Area of Convection near Western Shore of Madagascar

February 13th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Madagascar - February 13th, 2009

Area of convection near Madagascar - February 13th, 2009

Location of convective area

Location of convective area

An area of convection has persisted near 18.7S 42.1E, approximately 280 nautical miles west of Antanana, Madagascar.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a weak low level circulation center (LLCC9 with fragmented and flaring convection.

A WINDSAT pass showed 15 to 20 knot unflagged winds along thte western periphery of a poorly defined, elongated LLCC.

The circulation is in an area of favorable sea surface temperatures and is positioned under the upper level ridge axis.

Strong southweaterly winds in the region are introducing cool, dry air that is stalling further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.

source JTWC

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