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Area of Convection near Vietnam Wanes

December 3rd, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Vietnam - December 3rd, 2008

Area of convection near Vietnam - December 3rd, 2008

Area of convection near Vietnam - enhanced image

Area of convection near Vietnam - enhanced image

An area of convection is currently located approximately 355 nautical miles of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.

Part of Vietnam is visible on the top left of the main image, while the land mass on the bottom is Malaysia, where the sediment-filled Batang Lupar River can be also be seen.

Imagery of the system indicated a weakening low-level circulation center (LLCC) displaced southeast of persistent, increasingly disorganized deep convection.

A shear line with convergent flow north and northwest of the LLCC is continuing to produce deep convective bursts, with a defined 10-15 knot LLCC south.

The LLCC appears to be tracking west-southwestward while convection is shearing west-northwestward under strong diffluent upper-level flow.

The system has not consolidated as much as previously anticipated with an increasingly disorganized signature.

However, deep convection is still expected to form along the shear line due to strong linear convergence and good diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12-18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006mb.

Based on the lack of a significant LLCC signature on satellite imagery as well as the displaced center, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.

source JTWC

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