Area of Convection Moves Closer to New Caledonia
An area of convection has persisted near 20.6S 162.1E, approximately 260 nautical miles west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.
Recent animated infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show deep convection developing along a convergent band on the eastern periphery of a low level circulation center (LLCC).
Unflagged 20 to 25 knot winds have been shown near the center of the disturbance. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 27 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000mb.
The LLCC lies in an area of strong upper-level diffluence and increasing westerly vertical wind shear ahead of an approaching midlatitude trough.
Continued strong diffluence aloft may aid deepening over the next 24 hours, although the circulation is expected to transition into an extratropical low before sustained wind speeds approaching the warning intensity threshold of 35 knots.
Based on a less-than-optimal upper level environment and anticipated transition into an extratropical system, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.