Area of Convection Moves Closer to Fiji
The area of convection in the western/south Pacific Ocean has moved closer to Fiji; it is now located approximately 330 nautical miles west of Nadi.
Animated imagery depicts a weakening, elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC) with limited deep convection embedded within the monsoon trough.
Recent microwave imagery indicates a poorly-organized LLCC with weak convective banding at best and the majority of deep convection disassociated from and displaced 3 to 5 degrees north and northeast of the center.
An ASCAT image showed an elongated 15 to 20 knot LLCC with stronger convergent flow equatorward of 15S.
This convergent flow combined with improved poleward venting is producing significant areas of deep convection; however, upper-level strong northwesterly slow of 25 to 35 knots, associated with the approaching upper-level shortwave trough (now at 171E), is hindering further consolidation.
Based on the poorly-organized LLCC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been downgraded to poor.