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Area of Convection Lingers West-Northwest of Fiji

January 13th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Fiji - January 13th, 2009 © JTWC

Area of convection near Fiji - January 13th, 2009 © JTWC

An area of convection is located approximately 655 nautical miles west-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.

Animated imagery depicts a fully-exposed, well-defined low-level circulation c enter (LLCC) with no significant associated deep convection.

Over the past 12 hours, there have been isolated flares of deep convection near the LLCC but no evidence of improving consolidation.

An ASCAT image showed only 20 knot winds around the LLCC. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb.

The system is currently under strong vertical wind shear (VWS) but is forecast to track u nder the subtropical ridge axis and lower VWS in 12 to 24 hours.

Improved poleward venting associated with midlatitude westerlies may also allow this system to develop further as it tracks over sufficiently warm SST.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.

source JTWC

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