Area of Convection in South China Sea Strengthens
An area of convection associated with the remnats of 24W, located approximately 537km (334mi) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines, between the South China Sea and the Sulu Sea, has become more persistent over the last 12 hours.
The existing low level circulation center (LLCC) has become better organized, with winds at 28 to 37km/h (17 to 23mph), and weak banding has developed. Upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft. Vertical wind shear values have decreased and are expected to continue to decrease as the mid-latitude trough to the North moves eastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 37km/h (17 to 23mph). Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006mb.
Due to an improved convective signature and lower vertical wind shear, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.