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Area of Convection Close to Palau

February 4th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Area of convection - enhanced image

Area of convection - enhanced image

The area of convection previously located near 5.2N 139.1E is now located near 5.8N 137.3E.

It is approximately 180 nautical miles east-southeast of Palau, an island nation about 500 miles (800 km) east of the Philippines.

Recent animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection developing along a convergent band on the northern periphery of a weak low level circulation center (LLCC).

This disturbance lies equatorward of an upper-level anticyclone axis in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear and strong westward diffluence aloft.

Microwave imagery indicates some improvement in low level structure over the past several hours.

However, the 24 hours pressure trend from Palau is negligible, suggesting that the disturbance has not deepened significantly during the same period.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006mb.

Due to the fact that the LLCC is weak and vertical wind shear unfavorably strong, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.

source JTWC

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