Area of Convection by Madagascar Strengthens into Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S)22.1S 37.2E
The area of convection near Madagascar (click here for previous images) has now strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S). The system is located approximately 385 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked westward at 04 knots over the past six hours.
Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates rapid consolidation over the past twelve hours with tightly-curved deep convective banding wrapping into a well- defined center. An SSMI 37 ghz image depicts a microwave eye feature and supports the initial position with high confidence. Based on the SSMI image and previous microwave imagery, the system motion has become quasi-stationary and appears to be looping.
Upper- level conditions remain very favorable with weak vertical wind shear, radial outflow and warm SST. Over the past twelve hours, the subtropical steering ridge (STR) has weakened due to an approaching shortwave trough and TC 16S is currently tracking slowly and erratically within a weak steering environment.
Dynamic model guidance supports slow track motion through TAU 48 until a deep shortwave trough deepens south of Madagascar. Thereafter, the system will accelerate southeastward while undergoing extra-tropical transition (ETT).