Area of Convection Approaches Indonesia
An area of convection has persisted approximately 610 nautical miles north-northwest of Cocos Island.
The satellite image to the right shows some clouds related to the disturbance approaching Indonesia.
The image to the left, enhanced with inverted default grayshade, shows the entire area of convection (to the right). Tropical Cyclone 09S (Fanele) can also be seen (to the left) as it moves away from Madagascar and into open ocean (click here for updates on Fanele).
Regarding the convective area by Indonesia, recent animated imagery and data indicate a weak low level circulation, associated with flaring, disorganized convection.
The disturbance is located in a region of upper level diffluence, and high vertical wind shear, making the overall environment unstable for further development at this time.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.