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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Over Gulf of Carpentaria

14.6S 146.9E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) is being driven westward by a mid- to high- level anticyclone over the Coral Sea, which is weakening and pulling away towards the Solomon Islands.

In anticipation of the weaker steering influence, the JTWC track forecast hedges a little bit slower and poleward, but remains close to, consensus. Intensity guidance consistently indicates rapid weakening and dissipation of the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria, primarily due to VWS.

Although animated water vapor imagery is beginning to reveal some increased subsidence over the western side of the storm, solid radial outflow persists along with a weak poleward tap. Upper level streamline analysis depicts a ridge firmly entrenched over the Gulf of Carpentaria and top end of Australia, which will keep the system under less than 20 knots of VWS along its track.

Hence the VWS values given by the guidance appear over-done, and the JTWC forecast follows a slower dissipation trend. Track confidence is high through the first 48 hours, then very low afterwards due to the uncertainty in the intensity (and hence the associated steering environment) after TAU 48

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Slows Slightly

16.1S 145.5E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 218 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked westward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 35 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates the system has slowed and begun a slight turn equatorward during the past 12 hours. Dvorak assessments are in good agreement and confirm a relatively steady intensity during the past 15 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Make Landfall Over Cape York Peninsula, Australia

17S 145.5E

April 30th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) surged in intensity yesterday as a boost in poleward outflow occurred simultaneously with a boost in gradient level flow due to an anticyclone moving off-shore of Queensland.

The system will remain in its current environment of 29 degree surface waters and 15-20 knots of vertical wind shear (VWS) through landfall over the Cape York Peninsula. Track guidance is in excellent agreement up to landfall. Guidance is also consistent that the system will remain weak once it emerges into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Off Coast of Australia – April 30th, 2013

14.8S 145.5E

April 30th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – April 29th, 2013

Enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 315 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to organize, with Dvorak estimates from indicating the LLCC has intensified to warning status.

Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is located below the axis of a subtropical ridge, which is providing favorable poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are between 28 to 29 degrees Celsius and are expected to remain favorable as the LLCC tracks westward, making landfall between TAU 24 and 36.

Land interaction and dry air entrainment over Australia will start the dissipation of the system by TAU 48 with complete dissipation by TAU 72. There is a high level of uncertainty with the forecast, as the system moves back into the gulf of Carpentaria, due to the mix of dry air entrainment and favorable surface conditions competing for the dominant influence on intensity

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Weakens to Tropical Low

20.1S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 16th, 2013

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 16th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), active since the 5th of April, has weakened to a tropical low and begun to dissipate. While a tropical cyclone, its peak intensity was recorded with at maximum sustained wind speeds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and pressure of 966 mbar (hPa).

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