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Tropical Depression Tim (20P) Expected to Return to Australia Coast – March 14th, 2013

14.9S 139.7E

March 14th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression Tim (20p) – March 13th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Depression Tim (20p) - March 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Depression Tim (20P) is tracking southeastward under the influence of the mid-level NER to the north. After TAU 36, this steering mechanism is expected to weaken and be gradually replaced by a deep layer subtropical ridge (STR) to the southeast, which is expected to build in behind Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P).

Storm motion will slow as the steering transition takes place, allowing for further intensification, to a peak of 75 knots. Around TAU 72, the building STR will deflect Tim westward, back toward the Australian coast. Increasing VWS after TAU 72 should start to gradually weaken the system. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Depression Tim (20P) Forms Off Coast of Australia

15S 140.9E

March 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression Tim (20p) – March 12th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Depression Tim (20p) - March 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Depression Tim (20P), located approximately 240 nm north-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts deep convection wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). A mosaic of recent microwave satellite imagery reveals a hook of deep convection forming along the southern and western peripheries, further verifying the improved wrapping of convection around the LLCC.

The current position is based on fixes from PGTW, KNES, and ABRF, as well as an extrapolation from an AMSU image, with fair confidence. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW and ABRF, as well as an OSCAT pass which revealed 30 knot winds.

Upper air analysis indicates TD 20P is south of a near equatorial ridge (NER) axis, providing good speed and directional divergence to promote outflow. Some data suggests a point source is forming overhead. The vertical wind shear (VWS) is currently moderate, at 15-20 knots.