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Tropical Storm Three (03S) Tracking Southward

9.3S 73.3E

December 7th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Three (03S) – December 5th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm Three (03S) - December 6th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 03S

Tropical Storm Three (03S), located approximately 465 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked southward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convective bands are building towards the low level circulation center (LLCC).

The track has shifted southward over the past 12 hours as an approaching mid-latitude trough has caused the deep layered steering subtropical ridge (STR) to re-align into a more meridional pattern. The track shifts slightly westward over the next 24 hours as the STR adjusts to the passage of the trough.

Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is currently located under an STR axis which is providing the system a low to moderate (10 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear environment. The meridional pattern will persist through the remainder of the forecast period, causing the system to rapidly transit poleward.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain favorable (28 to 29 degrees Celsius) but as the system moves south of 20 degrees south, the SSTs rapidly decrease, leading to a weakening trend beyond TAU 72. By TAU 120, extra-tropical transition is expected to begin as TC 03S moves into the mid-latitude flow. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Three South-Southwest of Karachi, Pakistan

13.9N 54.8E

June 1st, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Three (03A) - May 31st, 2010

Tropical Storm Three (03A) - May 31st, 2010

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Enhanced image

Track of TC 03A - March 31st, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 03A

Tropical Cyclone Three (TC03A), located approximately 570 nm south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, has tracked north-northwestward at 4 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that TC03A has continued to consolidate with improved convective banding and central convection despite light to moderate, easterly vertical wind shear (VWS).

A NOAA-18 89 ghz image depicts multiple convective bands over the western semi-circle with the center positioned on the northeastern edge of a deep convective burst. There is fair confidence in the current position based on this image.

TC 03A is forecast to intensify at a 10-15 knot per day rate but will weaken rapidly after making landfall near TAU 96 and will dissipate by TAU 120. Maximum significant wave height is 17 feet.

The current intensity is assessed at 35 knots and is based on Dvorak estimates of 35 knots. Recent buoy observations near the center also support a strengthening system. A buoy 110 nm south-southeast indicated SLP near 1002.2 mb and SST of 30C, and a buoy 110 nm north indicated SLP near 1000.0 mb and SST near 31C.

The LLCC is located within a generally favorable environment under an upper-level anticyclone with good outflow aloft. As indicated on the total precipitable water product, the system has a deep moisture envelope. VWS has decreased slightly over the past 12 hours and is expected to decrease further within the next 12-24 hours.

TC 03A is tracking slowly along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge (STR), which is centered over western, central India. The system is expected to track slowly northward but should accelerate by TAU 48 as the STR builds.

By TAU 72, TC 03A should turn northeastward and accelerate as the system crests the STR axis and moves under the influence of a deepening midlatitude shortwave trough. The majority of the model guidance supports this track with the exception of WBAR, which shows a slow westward track.

Both the GFS and GFDN display erroneous tracks through TAU 48 but come into better agreement in the extended TAUs. The GFS 500 mb heights and vorticity indicate two vorticity maxima rotating cyclonically within an elongated circulation. This error accounts for the erroneous north-northwestward track through TAU 48.

The GFDN indicates an unrealistic eastward track into the steering ridge through TAU 24. Since these errors appear to offset each other, this forecast is close to but faster than the consensus. The ECMWF solution supports the current forecast and is close to the model consensus.

Tropical Storm Three is dissipating over Yemen

October 24th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

October 24th, 2008 - Tropical Storm ThreeThree

October 24th, 2008 - Tropical Storm Three

Tropical Storm Three - enhanced image

Tropical Storm Three - enhanced image

Tropical Storm Three is lingering near the coast of Yemen, and has continued to weaken. Intensity has been reduced to 25kts due to dry air entainment and land interaction. The LLC is becoming increasingly ill defined, thus Tropical Storm Three is expected to dissipate just inland.

Tropical Cyclone 03B (Three)

October 21st, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

October 21st, 2008 - Tropical Cyclone 03B03B

October 21st, 2008 - Tropical Cyclone 03B

Tropical Cyclone 03B - 4 day sequence

Tropical Cyclone 03B - 4 day sequence

Tropical Cyclone 03B located approximately 165 nm east of Cape Guardafui, Somalia has tracked north-northwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The current position represents a departure from the previously forecast track, and is based upon animated multi-spectral imagery which depicts an elongated and partially-exposed, low level circulation center (LLCC).

This change in storm motion over the past six hours is due to the enhanced low-level cross equatorial gradient flow south of the system which is providing a weak poleward steering influence on the sytorm. Convection continues to wane over the LLCC under the effects of increased vertical shear with the majority of activity confined to the southwestern quadrant of the storm in an area of enhanced low-level convergence. Current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 25 to 35 knots, multiple nearby surface observations and scatterometry data depicting 30 to 35 knot unflagged winds near the center. While outflow remains fair, vertical wind shear continues to degrade the upper level exhaust mechanism.

Tropical Cyclone 03B - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 03B - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 03B is expected to maintain 35-knot strength through tau 12 and then will begin gradually weakening due to moderate vertical shear and land interaction while approaching the somali coast under the steering influence of the low-level sub-tropical ridge north of the system.

Near tau 36, the storm will move over the Gulf of Aden where it is expected to continue weakening as it encounters lower ocean heat content values, increased vertical wind shear and the intrusion of drier air from the north. Tropical Cyclone 03B is expected to dissipate over land near tau 72 along the coast of Yemen.

source JTWC

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