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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Over Gulf of Carpentaria

14.6S 146.9E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) is being driven westward by a mid- to high- level anticyclone over the Coral Sea, which is weakening and pulling away towards the Solomon Islands.

In anticipation of the weaker steering influence, the JTWC track forecast hedges a little bit slower and poleward, but remains close to, consensus. Intensity guidance consistently indicates rapid weakening and dissipation of the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria, primarily due to VWS.

Although animated water vapor imagery is beginning to reveal some increased subsidence over the western side of the storm, solid radial outflow persists along with a weak poleward tap. Upper level streamline analysis depicts a ridge firmly entrenched over the Gulf of Carpentaria and top end of Australia, which will keep the system under less than 20 knots of VWS along its track.

Hence the VWS values given by the guidance appear over-done, and the JTWC forecast follows a slower dissipation trend. Track confidence is high through the first 48 hours, then very low afterwards due to the uncertainty in the intensity (and hence the associated steering environment) after TAU 48

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Slows Slightly

16.1S 145.5E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 218 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked westward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 35 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates the system has slowed and begun a slight turn equatorward during the past 12 hours. Dvorak assessments are in good agreement and confirm a relatively steady intensity during the past 15 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Make Landfall Over Cape York Peninsula, Australia

17S 145.5E

April 30th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) surged in intensity yesterday as a boost in poleward outflow occurred simultaneously with a boost in gradient level flow due to an anticyclone moving off-shore of Queensland.

The system will remain in its current environment of 29 degree surface waters and 15-20 knots of vertical wind shear (VWS) through landfall over the Cape York Peninsula. Track guidance is in excellent agreement up to landfall. Guidance is also consistent that the system will remain weak once it emerges into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Fires Southwest of Mornington Island, Australia

17.1S 138.5E

April 24th, 2013 Category: Fires

Australia – April 24th, 2013

Fires can be seen near the coast of the Gulf of Carpinteria, southwest of Mornington Island, in Queensland, Australia, near the border with the Northern Territory. Most of the fires are located in a cluster in the lower left quadrant of the image.

Fires Near Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

17.7S 137.9E

April 22nd, 2013 Category: Fires

Australia – April 22nd, 2013

Fires can be seen near the Gulf of Carpentaria, in the border area between Queensland (right) and the Northern Territory (left), in Australia. Red markers show the precise locations of the fires, while the smoke emanating from them can be seen blowing in a more generalized cloud towards the southwest.

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