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Tropical Cyclone One (01S) in Indian Ocean

9.1S 62.1E

October 13th, 2012 Category: Fires, Lakes

Tropical Storm One (01S) – October 12th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm One (01S) - October 12th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

Tropical Cyclone One (01S), located approximately 170 nm southwest of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery reveals a strengthening symmetric system with deep convection wrapping into a low level circulation center. Also, a microwave eye has recently formed. The initial intensity of 45 knots is based on the high end of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots.

There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature. Upper-level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate 01S is in a favorable environment just north of a ridge axis in an area of low (5 to 15 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS) with good radial outflow.

TC 01S is expected to continue tracking southwestward under the influence of a near equatorial steering ridge (NER) to the southeast. TC 01S should intensify through TAU 72, as environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable. After TAU 72, VWS is is expected to increase, and sea surface temperatures will decrease, resulting in gradual weakening the system. Dynamic models are in good agreement, and forecast confidence is high. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.