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Typhoon Muifa Expected to Strike Okinawa, Japan – August 1st, 2011

24.1N 131.7E

August 1st, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - July 28th, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - July 31st, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), located approximately 570 nm south-southeast of Kadena air base, Japan, has tracked northward at 08 knots over the past six hours. A distinct 10 nm eye persists, and animated infrared imagery shows a recent trend toward better organization and consolidation of the convection around the system center. Maximum significant wave height is 46 feet.

Overall though, there is not much change in intensity, which continue to be based on agency subjective Dvorak assessments. Over the past 24 hours, the overall system intensity has come down 20 knots. Despite its severe intensity, TY 11W is showing diurnal intensity fluctuation. For the second consecutive day, convection waned during the daylight hours and surged during the evening hours.

Some erosion of the eyewall over the northeast quadrant occurred during the daylight ebb, but the latest available microwave imagery indicates that deep convection persists throughout the storm. The outflow situation also deteriorated during the past 24 hours, but it too is starting to improve.

Animated water vapor imagery shows an east-west oriented trough impinging on the northeastern quadrant beginning near 310000z. The trough is currently stretched along the 24th latitude and is now suppressing outflow over the northwestern quadrant. The 311200z PGTW upper level streamline analysis also reveals increased sheer over the northwest quadrant. Although the trough is impeding on the northwestern quadrant, it is enhancing outflow over the northeast quadrant. A vigorous poleward channel has set up over the northeastern sector. Equatorward outflow remains vigorous and convection over the entire southern semicircle is widespread and deep. Recent imagery confirms gale force winds extend approximately 170 nm outward over the southern semicircle.

Muifa continues its poleward track through a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weakness exists between the seasonal anticyclone over eastern China and the Bonin High, which is now retrograding southeast. The slow and erratic poleward movement will continue through approximately 20 degrees north latitude (TAU 18), and then the anticyclone will begin nudging the system on a bend to the northwest. Intensity guidance indicates that the highest shear will be encountered during the next 18 hours, just before the storm makes its westward bend. aAbove 20 degrees north latitude, vertical wind shear is expected to stay at around 15 knots, while sea surface temperatures will remain near 29 degrees through the entire track.

Ocean heat content remains the primary variable in the intensity forecast. Although sea surface temperatures remain high, the depth of the 26 degree isotherm decreases by nearly 50 per cent north of 20 degrees north latitude. Track guidance continues to come into tighter alignment. All aids indicate a high impact strike on or very close to Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Lupit (22W) to Complete Extratropical Transition Southeast of Tokyo, Japan

28.1N 131.4E

October 26th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Typhoon Lupit Near Taiwan - October 25th, 2009

Typhoon Lupit Near Taiwan - October 25th, 2009

Track of Lupit - October 25th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Lupit

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Lupit (22W) has been downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical storm. Now located approximately 200 nm east of Okinawa, Japan, the system has tracked northeastward at 18 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared imagery indicates 22W is starting to elongate to the northwest and that the deep convection has weakened and shifted to the northeast of the low level circulation center.

Additionally, Lupit is showing the signs of moderate to high vertical wind shear and PGTW has started to use the extratropical fix method, yielding a value of 45 knots.

Lupit has started to interact with the baroclinic zone, will continue to accelerate into the mid-latitudes, and will complete extratropical transition southeast of Tokyo, Japan, by TAU 24. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet.

Typhoon Melor (20W)

16.6N 130.0E

October 6th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Melor (20W) - October 6th, 2009

Typhoon Melor (20W) - October 6th, 2009

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Track of Typhoon Melor (20W) - October 6th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Melor

Typhoon 20w (Melor), located approximately 235 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan, has tracked north-northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours.

Recent animated multispectral imagery continues to show a fully-developed typhoon with a well-defined eye and animated water vapor imagery indicates that typhoon Melor has developed better poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies as it is starting to crest the subtropical ridge axis.

However, recent infrared imagery reveals waning deep convection and Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD have dropped in the last 12 hours. The current intensity is based on these Dvorak estimates.

The current position is also based on fixes by the same agencies, with high confidence. The current numerical model aids are in good agreemeent with the system starting recurvature within the next 12 to 18 hours.

The aids also agree on landfall west of Tokyo, Japan, after tau 36. Maximum significant wave height at 060600z is 38 feet.

Tropical Storm Parma (19W) Hovering Near Philippines; Super Typhoon Melor (20W) on its Way

20.6N 118.8E

October 6th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Parma (19W) - October 5th, 2009

Tropical Storm Parma (19W) - October 5th, 2009

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Track of TS Parma (19W), left, and STY Melor (20W), right - October 5th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Parma and Melor

In a week that saw Samoa hit by a tsnuami and Indonesia shaken by an earthquake, the Philippines, caught a break: Typhoon Parma (19W) missed the capital of Manila.

Just one week after a hurricane flooded 80 percent of Manila, killing 300 people and displacing at least half a million, the devastated city has been spared a second major storm. Typhoon Parma had threatened to dump even more heavy rains over the city, trigger more landslides, and block relief efforts, reports the CSM.

Though typhoon Parma did strike the island of Luzon, where Manila is located, and kill 16 people, it then bypassed the capital and edged toward the less densely populated north.

Parma was also downgraded to a tropical storm Monday, with winds of 59 mph and gusts of up to 75 mph, according to the Associated Press. The storm is now located approximately 330 nautical miles east-southeast of Hong Kong, has remained quasi-stationary over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.

Parma is still expected to cause severe damage, though, dumping heavy rains not just in the northern Philippines but also Taiwan, where 6,000 villagers have been evacuated. Instead of continuing on its path away from the country, it’s predicted to linger over the city of Laoag and surrounding areas until Thursday. That’s because a third typhoon, Melor (to the right in the animated image), churning in the Pacific, is acting “like a magnet” and holding Parma in place, according to Agence France-Presse.

Super Typhoon Melor (20W), on the other hand, is projected to pass over Philippine waters but not hit the mainland. It is now located approximately 500 nautical miles southeast of Okinawa, and has tracked northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 40 feet.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Tracks Northeastward

23.8N 134.2E

September 6th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Dujuan - September 5th, 2009

Tropical Storm Dujuan - September 5th, 2009

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Track of Dujuan - September 5th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Dujuan

Tropical Storm Dujuan (13W) is located approximately 430 nautical miles east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan. In the full image, the island nation of Japan can be seen to the north of the system.

Dujuan has tracked northeastward at 16 knots over the past six hours. The system has maximum sustained winds of 45 knots with higher gusts of up to 55 knots. Maximum significant wave height at is 25 feet.