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Tropical Cyclone 04A South-Southwest of Mumbai, India, and Tracking Northward

17.2N 72.9E

November 11th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone 04A - November 10th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 04A - November 10th, 2009

Track of TC 04A - November 10th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 04A

Enhanced image

Enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 04A, located approximately 245 nm south-southwest of Mumbai, India, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.

The cyclone can be viewed best by opening the full image, in which convection associated with the system can be seen reaching northeastward towards the Himalayas and extending far south down the coast.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a TMI 37 ghz image depict a large monsoon-like circulation with improved convective banding over the north semi-circle and weak banding elsewhere.

The low-level circulation center has slowly consolidated under favorable poleward venting ahead of a midlatitude shortwave trough propagating over the western Arabian Sea, however, the current intensity has been held steady based on estimates of 35 knots and the 35-knot unflagged scatterometer winds.

TC 04A is forecast to continue tracking northward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and should track under increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the aforementioned midlatitude shortwave trough. Available model guidance are in good agreement through TAU 48 and support this northward track philosophy.

The system should intensify 10-15 knots over the next 24-36 hours but is likely to weaken quickly after TAU 24 due to strong VWS in excess of 50 knots and interaction with land after TAU 36. TC 04A is expected to dissipate over land between TAU 48 and 72.

Tropical Cyclone Expected to Form off Coast of India

14.6N 71.7E

June 24th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of convection off Indian coast - June 23rd, 2009

Area of convection off Indian coast - June 23rd, 2009

enhanced image

enhanced image

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible from an area of convection located approximately 85 nautical miles west-northwest of Mumbai, India.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery indicates that a low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to develop over the past 12 hours, with deep convection moving over the LLCC.

Upper level analysis shows a dual channel outflow beginning to setup over the LLCC, enhanced by a mid-latitude upper level trough over the Pakistan/India border region. This will allow for an increase in intensity over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Additionally, the area of convection is in an area of low vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperatures are favorable for development throughout the region. However, if the system continues to track towards the coast, land influences could hamper the inflow to the LLCC.

Due to increased consolidation and organization over the last 6 hours, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.