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Typhoon Muifa (11W) Southwest of Japan

29.7N 126.0E

August 6th, 2011 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) – August 6th, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - August 6th, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), is currently located approximately 140 nautical miles west-northwest of Kadena air base, Japan. Upon opening the full image, the location of the typhoon southwest of Japan can be observed.

The system has tracked north-northwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 33 feet

Typhoon Muifa (11W) Moves Towards Shanghai, China – August 5th, 2011

27.0N 123.2E

August 5th, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) – August 5th, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - August 5th, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), is currently located approximately 55 nautical miles west-southwest of Kadena air base, Japan. The system has tracked northwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 36 feet.

China warned residents and alerted emergency relief centers Friday to prepare for a powerful typhoon that was heading toward its heavily populated eastern coast. Typhoon Muifa is forecast to hit China late Saturday or early Sunday close to Shanghai, a commercial hub with a population of 23 million. Zhejiang’s flood headquarters told authorities in coastal areas to prepare for evacuations.

Eye of Typhoon Muifa (11W) – August 4th, 2011

28.5N 128.9E

August 4th, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - August 1st, 2011

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Late on July 23, an area of low pressure formed to the southeast of Chuuk. The system gradually drifted to the west and on July 25, the JTWC upgraded the low pressure area to a tropical depression. At that time, it was located approximately 505 nautical miles (935 km; 581 mi) to the west of Guam.

At midnight, that day, the JMA started monitoring the system as a tropical depression. Early on July 28, the JTWC upgraded the system into a Tropical Storm. A few hours later, the JMA too upgraded the system to a tropical storm, naming it Muifa (11W).

Soon, the storm moved into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) named it Kabayan. The storm gradually drifted north over the next day maintaining strength. On the night of July 29, Muifa was upgraded into a Severe Tropical Storm.

Overnight, the storm strengthened rapidly and was upgraded into a Typhoon the next morning. The storm strengthened so rapidly, and the JTWC reported that the storm’s peak winds were reaching 140 knots (260 km/h; 160 mph) (1-min sustained), as it strengthened into a Category 5 Typhoon.

However, the typhoon couldn’t maintain Category 5 strength for a long time. According to the JTWC, On July 31, the typhoon interacted with an upper level trough and weakened into a Category 4 Typhoon on the SSHS.

Typhoon Muifa (11W) Near Japan

27.1N 129.6E

August 3rd, 2011 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - August 3rd, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - August 3rd, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), located approximately 230 nm east-southeast of Kadena air base, Japan, has tracked northwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 38 feet.

Muifa killed 2 men, as their boat was capsized in the vicinity of Hagonoy, Bulacan and Pampanga Delta. Due to the southwest monsoon enhanced by Muifa, it caused heavy rains in several parts of Luzon including Metro Manila. In Marikina 200 residents or 31 families living in communities along the Marikina River have sought shelter in evacuation centers.

Typhoon Muifa Expected to Strike Okinawa, Japan – August 1st, 2011

24.1N 131.7E

August 1st, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - July 28th, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - July 31st, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), located approximately 570 nm south-southeast of Kadena air base, Japan, has tracked northward at 08 knots over the past six hours. A distinct 10 nm eye persists, and animated infrared imagery shows a recent trend toward better organization and consolidation of the convection around the system center. Maximum significant wave height is 46 feet.

Overall though, there is not much change in intensity, which continue to be based on agency subjective Dvorak assessments. Over the past 24 hours, the overall system intensity has come down 20 knots. Despite its severe intensity, TY 11W is showing diurnal intensity fluctuation. For the second consecutive day, convection waned during the daylight hours and surged during the evening hours.

Some erosion of the eyewall over the northeast quadrant occurred during the daylight ebb, but the latest available microwave imagery indicates that deep convection persists throughout the storm. The outflow situation also deteriorated during the past 24 hours, but it too is starting to improve.

Animated water vapor imagery shows an east-west oriented trough impinging on the northeastern quadrant beginning near 310000z. The trough is currently stretched along the 24th latitude and is now suppressing outflow over the northwestern quadrant. The 311200z PGTW upper level streamline analysis also reveals increased sheer over the northwest quadrant. Although the trough is impeding on the northwestern quadrant, it is enhancing outflow over the northeast quadrant. A vigorous poleward channel has set up over the northeastern sector. Equatorward outflow remains vigorous and convection over the entire southern semicircle is widespread and deep. Recent imagery confirms gale force winds extend approximately 170 nm outward over the southern semicircle.

Muifa continues its poleward track through a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weakness exists between the seasonal anticyclone over eastern China and the Bonin High, which is now retrograding southeast. The slow and erratic poleward movement will continue through approximately 20 degrees north latitude (TAU 18), and then the anticyclone will begin nudging the system on a bend to the northwest. Intensity guidance indicates that the highest shear will be encountered during the next 18 hours, just before the storm makes its westward bend. aAbove 20 degrees north latitude, vertical wind shear is expected to stay at around 15 knots, while sea surface temperatures will remain near 29 degrees through the entire track.

Ocean heat content remains the primary variable in the intensity forecast. Although sea surface temperatures remain high, the depth of the 26 degree isotherm decreases by nearly 50 per cent north of 20 degrees north latitude. Track guidance continues to come into tighter alignment. All aids indicate a high impact strike on or very close to Okinawa.

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