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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (06S) Forecast to Weaken

19.9S 112.5E

December 30th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 06S – December 28th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm 06S - December 28th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 06S

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (TC 06S), located approximately 240 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that TC 06S is weakening rapidly with diminishing deep convection. However, a 291833z AMSU image indicates deep convective banding over the southern circle with tightly-wrapped shallow banding elsewhere. A 291552z OCEANSAT image shows 30 to 35 knot winds and a symmetric circulation.

The initial intensity is assessed slightly higher than the scatterometer data based on an average of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots. There is fair confidence in the initial position based on the AMSU image.

TC 06S is tracking southward to south-southwestward along the western periphery of a deep subtropical ridge, which is entrenched over western Australia as evidenced by the latest Port Hedland sounding showing 25 to 35 knot north-northeasterly steering flow. There is high confidence in the JTWC forecast based on a 65-nm spread in dynamic model guidance at TAU 36. TC 06S is forecast to weaken throughout the forecast period and should dissipate over cool SST (less than 25ºC) by TAU 36.

Tropical Cyclone 06S Near Western Australia

19.3S 112.5E

December 29th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 06S – December 27th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm 06S - December 28th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 06S

During 26 December, TCWC Perth started to monitor a weak tropical low that had developed about 1,265 km (785 mi) to the southeast of Jakarta, Indonesia. Over the next couple of days the low moved towards the south-southwest and gradually developed further before the JTWC declared it Tropical Cyclone 06S on 28 December.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (TC 06S), located approximately 365 nm north- northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with tightly-curved deep convective banding wrapping into the system. The deep convective banding is located primarily over the southern and western semi-circles with shallow banding elsewhere.

The initial intensity is assessed at 40 knots, which is slightly lower than the Dvorak estimates of 45 knots, based on the recent weakening of core convection evidenced by warming cloud top temperatures over the past few hours. There is good confidence in the initial position and recent track motion. Mitchell is located within a favorable environment with good poleward outflow enhanced by an upper-low over southwest Australia.

The system is forecast to continue tracking south-southwestward through tau 48 along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. TC 06S is forecast to intensify through TAU 12 due to continued favorable conditions. However, the system is expected to weaken rapidly as it tracks south of 20S due to cooler SSTs (24 to 26ºC). Mitchell is expected to dissipate by TAU 48.

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