Area of Convection - November 1st, 2010
Track of Area of Convection
An area of convection has persisted approximately 235 nm north-northwest of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows flaring convection, associated with a loosely organized low level circulation center (LLCC), persisting over the Malay Peninsula.
Over the past several hours, surface observations have indicated variable winds (10-15 knots) out of the west-northwest with a 24 hour pressure decrease of 6 mb’s.
Upper level analysis indicates broad upper level diffluence with low vertical wind shear (10 to 15 knots). Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb.
Due to persistent deep convection and favorable upper level conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.