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Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Expected to Intensify

12.4S 123.9E

January 9th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 8th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 8th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) located approximately 610 nm north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked westward at 7 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery indicates a rapidly consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) located under a central dense overcast feature with improved deep convective banding over the western semi-circle of the system. An AMSU-B microwave image shows deep convection surrounding a formative microwave eye feature. There is good confidence in initial position based upon the eye feature in the microwave imagery.

TC 08S is located equatorward of the upper-level ridge axis and is under weak to moderate (10 to 20 knots) east-northeasterly vertical wind shear with improved poleward outflow into a deep midlatitude trough positioned west of Australia. The initial intensity is assessed at 55 knots based on congruent Dvorak intensity estimates of 55 knots.

Narelle is forecast to track south to southwestward under the steering influence of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge positioned southeast of the system. Dynamic model guidance is tight agreement with the exception of the GFDN, which tracks the system well west of the other models and at slower speeds. Overall, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. TC 08S is expected to rapidly intensify under favorable environmental conditions and reach a peak intensity of 130 knots by TAU 72.

Tropical Cyclone Eight (08S) Forms Off Coast of Australia – January 8th, 2013

15.2S 120.2E

January 8th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 7th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 7th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Eight (08S), located approximately 700nm north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 7 knots over the past six hours   (click here for previous images). Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC), with improved convective bands wrapping around the LLCC and deepening central convection. An AMSU-B microwave image shows increasing organization around the LLCC as the LLCC has become better defined.

The initial position is based upon the aforementioned imagery with fair confidence. The initial intensity is slightly higher than congruent Dvorak intensity estimates of 30 knots from all agencies based upon the improved structure.

Upper level analysis indicates TC 08S is under a highly diffluent region of the subtropical ridge, providing good outflow and low (05-10 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS). Additionally, an upper-level low southwest of Australia is enhancing the poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are favorable for intensification at 30 to 31 degrees Celsius and remain favorable until south of 22S where they begin to rapidly decline.

TC 08S is currently tracking west- southwestward along a northwest periphery of a deep layered subtropical ridge to the southeast over Western Australia. The system will continue to track west-southwest and increasingly take a more southern track as the current steering ridge reacts to several transient mid-latitude troughs passing to the south.

TC 08S will increase to a peak of 125 knots by TAU 96 as favorable environmental conditions of low VWS, good outflow and high SSTs are forecast. Dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement with the southwestern track but disagree slightly on the extent of the poleward turn. The JTWC official forecast is close to multi-model consensus. Due to the spread in solutions among the models on the extent of the southern turn, forecast confidence is low.

Look Back at Tropical Storm Vince Near Australia

23.3S 162.4E

January 26th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Vince - January 16th, 2011

Tropical Storm Vince - January 16th/17th, 2011

With these images Eosnap takes a look back at Tropical Storm Vince on the 16th and early 17th of January, 2011, off the coast of Australia.

The storm strengthened from the 14th to the 16th, but was affected by strong wind shear and was downgraded below tropical storm status on the 17th.

On Sunday, January 16, when the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued their last advisory on Tropical Cyclone Vince, the system was about 370 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia. At that time, Vince’s maximum sustained winds were near 34 mph, but weakening.

Enhanced image - January 16th/17th, 2011

Enhanced image - January 16th, 2011

Tropical Cyclone 22s (Ilsa) Intensifies Rapidly

March 19th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 22s - March 18th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22s - March 18th, 2009

Track of TC 22s - March 19th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s - March 19th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22s (Ilsa), located approximately 720 nautical miles east-southeast of Cocos Island, has tracked southwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.

It has passed between Jakarta, Indonesia, and Learmonth, on Australia’s North West Cape (the peninsula on the bottom right).

Animated water vapor imagery shows that the convection around the low level circulation center has further deepened and consolidated.

Upper level analysis indicates the system has tracked closer to the subtropical ridge axis and consequently, vertical wind shear (VWS) has weakened, contributing to the rapid intensification over the past 12 hours.

TC 22s - March 18th, 2009 © JTWC

TC 22s - March 18th, 2009

TC 22S will continue to track west-southwest along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge and further intensify up to TAU 36. After that time, the system will slightly weaken with increased VWS as the ridge to the South builds.

Tropical Cyclone 22S Forms Between Indonesia and Australia

March 18th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 22s - March 18th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22s - March 18th, 2009

TC 22s - March 18th, 2009 © JTWC

TC 22s - March 17th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22s, located approximately 510 nautical miles north of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 15 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height  is 8 feet.

Animated multispectral imagery shows deep convection forming in the southwest and southeast quadrants (visible on the right side of the main image) and in the center of a well-defined circulation.

Animated water-vapor imagery shows the system developing a poleward outflow channel in the last few hours. An SSMI image shows well-defined deep convective bands wrapping around the South and into a well defined low level circulation center (LLCC).

Track of TC 22s - March 18th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s - March 18th, 2009

The system is in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. As the system tracks to the west-southwest it will move closer to the axis of the upper level anti-cyclone and will be in an area of more favorable vertical windshear and upper-level outflow.

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