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Fair Possibility for Tropical Cyclone near Northern Australia

February 26th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Australia - February 26th, 2009

Area of convection near Australia - February 26th, 2009

Convective area - enhanced image

Convective area - enhanced image

An area of convection has persisted approximately 260 nautical miles west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.

Animated infrared imagery and animated composite radar indicates a low level circulation center (LLCC) is beginning to rapidly consolidate and build deep convection near the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is under low to moderate vertical wind shear with good outflow.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures are very favorable for increased development if the LLCC moves across the Kimberly Coast into the Indian Ocean.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots and minimum sea level pressure at 1003 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.