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Tropical Storm 07W (Molave/Isang) Expected to Make Landfall Near Hong Kong This Weekend

20.6N 117.4E

July 18th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07W - July 17th, 2009

Tropical Storm 07W - July 17th, 2009

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Track of TS 07W - July 17th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07W

Tropical Storm Molave (07W), named Isang in the Philippines, is located approximately 305 nautical miles north-northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.

TS07W continues tracking along the southwestern periphery of an extension of the subtropical ridge, located to its northeast. Multispectral imagery indicates that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has quickly become organized with tightly curved banding developing toward it.

As Molave tracks to the north of Luzon, the inflow of relatively drier air (apparent in total precipitable water products) has led to a decrease in deep convection on the southeastern periphery. However, this has been offset by increased deep convection on the northern periphery.

Upper level analysis still indicates strong equatorward outflow is present. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development, and the ocean heat content (OHC) products indicate there is a large region of deep, warm water between Luzon and Taiwan helping to fuel a brief period of rapid development.

High pressure to the north and northeast of 07W will steer the storm into the South China Sea this weekend and will take aim at China. However, the OHC will decrease as TS07W tracks into the northern portion of the South China Sea and, in association with increased vertical wind shear, will begin to weaken. Molave is forecast to make landfall near Hong Kong around TAU 36 and quickly begin to dissipate, with full dissipation by TAU 72.

Before it reaches China, 07W will pass through the Luzon Strait Friday. Despite remaining over water, 07W will impact Luzon Island with locally heavy rains and strong, damaging wind gusts Friday. Rainfall amounts could exceed 5 inches (125 mm) in some areas, resulting in flash flooding and landslides. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph (115 kph) during the day as well.

Tropical Storm 07W Near Philippines

15.2N 124.4E

July 17th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07W - July 16th, 2009

Tropical Storm 07W - July 16th, 2009

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Track of TS 07W - July 16th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07W

The Western Pacific Ocean its now experiencing its third tropical depression this week. Tropical Storm 07W, referred to in the Philippines as “Isang” will skirt the eastern side of the main island this week before a landfall in China over the weekend.

Although Tropical Storm Isang (07W) isn’t expected to make a landfall in the northern Philippines it is expected to bring heavy rainfall as it passes by.

Tropical Storm 07W is now located approximately 280 nautical miles east-northeast of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked northwestward at 9 knots over the past 6 hours. The subtropical ridging northeast of the system remains the dominant steering influence, helping to maintain the northwest track.

Deep convection remains persistent over the low level circulation center (LLCC). In the most recent multispectral imagery, a secondary LLCC is identifiable to the northeast of TS 07W and appears to have spun off from the main circulation.

The upper level analysis indicates that the system remains in a weakly diffluent region, and that the upper level outflow appears to be the major hindrance to stronger development. Maximum significant wave height is 11 feet.

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