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Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Weakens to Tropical Low

20.1S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 16th, 2013

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 16th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), active since the 5th of April, has weakened to a tropical low and begun to dissipate. While a tropical cyclone, its peak intensity was recorded with at maximum sustained wind speeds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and pressure of 966 mbar (hPa).

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Weakening

21.7S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 15th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 16th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is currently tracking southward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge but is forecast to turn westward as it weakens and begins to steer under the influence of a broad, transitory midlatitude ridge building to the south.

Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. The system is expected to weaken through the forecast period due to persistent moderate to strong vertical wind shear associated with subtropical westerly flow, and marginal sea surface temperature values near 26C.

Surface winds over the southern semi-circle are forecast to remain near gale-force levels due to the enhanced gradient associated with the aforementioned high building south of the system. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) with 55-Knot Winds

20.8S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 14th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 370 nm east of La Reunion, has tracked south-southeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts rapidly decaying deep convection, now sheared about 70 nm east of the system center. An SSMIS image depicts well-defined, tightly-wrapped shallow convective banding wrapping into the low- level circulation center with an isolated area of deep convection near 20S 64E.

There is good confidence in the initial position based on this image as well as an AMSU composite image. The initial intensity is assessed at 55 knots based on Dvorak intensity estimates ranging from 45 to 65 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda East of Madagascar – April 15th, 2013

19.3S 52.0E

April 15th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 14th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is tracking along the southwest periphery of a near-equatorial ridge and is expected to recurve westward after TAU 36 as a building subtropical ridge to the south assumes steering.

As the system continues to move poleward, the vertical wind shear (VWS) will steadily increase causing its gradual erosion and, finally, dissipation by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is in overall good agreement with WBAR as the sole outlier extending the track southeastward beyond 72 hours. The remainder of the models recurve the vortex westward, albeit at varying increments. The JTWC track forecast is laid closely to model consensus with high confidence.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Tracking Southeastward at 14 Knots

20.1S 52.0E

April 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 14th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 340 nm east-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked southeastward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates the system has significantly deepened. Additionally, an eye has opened then closed in the past 12 hours. The initial intensity is based on closely-grouped agency fixes and lined up well with a central warm spot on an SSMI-S microwave pass.

The initial intensity is based on a consensus of subjective Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and FIMP. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of a ridge axis in an area of moderate (15-20 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS); however, poleward outflow, which is enhancing the convection, remains robust, as evidenced on animated water vapor imagery.

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