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Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Forecast to Continue Tracking Eastward

25.7S 46.4E

February 24th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 23rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 23rd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) is forecast to continue tracking eastward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the north while weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooler SSTs.

Dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement through TAU 48, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. The remnants of TC 16S are forecast to track westward toward Mozambique after TAU 48 as a strong high builds to the south. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Tracking Eastward After Making Landfall Over Madagascar

26.8S 47.8E

February 24th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 23rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 23rd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S), located approximately 395 nm southwest of La Reunion, has tracked eastward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that deep convection has remained disorganized over the past 12 hours with warming cloud top temperatures, indicative of weakening deep convection occurring over the past six hours. An SSMI image, however, continues to show tightly-curved shallow banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center.

Consequently, Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased to 35 knots. SATCON estimates remain near 45 knots, which fits better with the overall convective structure and with an ASCAT image, which showed 35 to 40 knot winds over the western semi-circle. The initial intensity remains assessed at 45 knots. There is fair confidence in the initial position based on the elongated LLCC evident in recent microwave imagery.

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Passing Over Southern Madagascar, Expected to Weaken – February 23rd, 2013

24.7S 44.2E

February 23rd, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 22nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 22nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) is tracking along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge but is embedded within upper-level westerly flow associated with a shortwave trough. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track, therefore, there is high confidence in the forecast track.

The system is expected to continue weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear associated with persistent westerly flow as well as cooler SSTs (after TAU 24), therefore, TC 16S should dissipate by TAU 72. The remnants will likely track westward toward Madagascar as a strong subtropical high builds to the south after TAU 48.

Eye of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Over Madagascar Coast

24.3S 44.2E

February 23rd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 22nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 22nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) made landfall over the south-west coast of Madagascar on 22 February as a powerful Category 2 Tropical Cyclone. Here, the eye can be seen hovering over the coast.

Before hitting Madagascar, Haruna vacillated for seven days in the Mozambique Channel, bringing above-normal rainfall to the western coast of Madagascar. More than 230% of normal rainfall was recorded between 10 and 20 February over the districts of Morombe and Taolagnaro.

Assessments of damage are not yet possible due to weather conditions. Local airports are still closed (which is impeding aerial assessments) and roads are still inaccessible, as Haruna is still active over southern Madagascar; however, reports of significant damage to houses, public buildings and infrastructure are being received.

Haruna is projected to weaken as it moves overland and exit south-western Madagascar on 23 February. As the south and south-western coasts of the country are not high-risk cyclone zones, prepositioned stock is very limited and humanitarian actors are reallocating non-food items from other areas. Only medicine; water, sanitation and health (WASH) supplies; non-food items and food meant for regular programs, was available in the affected areas.

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Weakening Due to Interaction with Land

24.7S 42.1E

February 23rd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 22nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 22nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S), located approximately 320 nm south of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked southeastward at 11 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery depicts rapidly weakening core convection due to land interaction. However, an AMSU image and recent microwave imagery continue to indicate tightly-curved, shallow banding wrapping into a strong low-level circulation center.

The initial intensity is assessed at 60 knots based on the overall structure. There is fair confidence in the initial position based on an SSMI image and animated IR imagery.

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