Typhoon 18w (Hagupit) peaked in intensity sometime around 23/18z as it approached the southeast China coast. Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5 (127 knots) at this time. The system made landfall at approximately 23/2030z, 45 nm southwest of Yangjiang, China, which reported maximum surface winds of 360/54 knots with slp of 976.2 mb.
The system has since weakened slightly with animated satellite imagery depicting asymmetric deep convection with a 20 nm cloud-filled eye. however, a 232223z SSMIS image still indicates a complete eye-wall straddling the coast with deep convective banding wrapping into the southeast quadrant. ty 18w has tracked generally west-northwestward at 18 knots.
The models have remained consistent and in excellent agreement with the current forecast. Hagupit continues to track along the southern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge. The 23/12z 500 mb analysis showed a east-west oriented str extending west-southwestward into northern Thailand. Animated water vapor imagery shows good radial outflow. The current position is based on high-confidence position fixes of the visible eye as well as the recent microwave image. The current intensity is based on an average of Dvorak estimates ranging from 90 knots to 115 knots from PGTW, KNES and RJTD.
No significant changes to track or philosophy but adjusted initial intensities up based on pre-landfall intensification. The orientation of the str will produce a westward to west-southwestward track into northern Vietnam over the next 48 hours. This will allow the system to maintain Typhoon intensity until it moves into northern Vietnam near tau 24, at which point the system will begin to dissipate quickly. Hagupit is forecast to dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone over land by tau 48.
The remnants may track eastward back over water but are not expected to redevelop due to an unfavorable environment. The model trackers are in very good agreement with this forecast track.