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Typhoon Hagupit approaching China

September 24th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

September 24th, 2008 - Typhoon Hagupit approaching ChinaHagupit

September 24th, 2008 - Typhoon Hagupit approaching China

Hagupit - Image Enhanced

Hagupit - Image Enhanced

Typhoon 18w (Hagupit) peaked in intensity sometime around 23/18z as it approached the southeast China coast. Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5 (127 knots) at this time. The system made landfall at approximately 23/2030z, 45 nm southwest of Yangjiang, China, which reported maximum surface winds of 360/54 knots with slp of 976.2 mb.

The system has since weakened slightly with animated satellite imagery depicting asymmetric deep convection with a 20 nm cloud-filled eye. however, a 232223z SSMIS image still indicates a complete eye-wall straddling the coast with deep convective banding wrapping into the southeast quadrant. ty 18w has tracked generally west-northwestward at 18 knots.

The models have remained consistent and in excellent agreement with the current forecast. Hagupit continues to track along the southern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge. The 23/12z 500 mb analysis showed a east-west oriented str extending west-southwestward into northern Thailand. Animated water vapor imagery shows good radial outflow. The current position is based on high-confidence position fixes of the visible eye as well as the recent microwave image. The current intensity is based on an average of Dvorak estimates ranging from 90 knots to 115 knots from PGTW, KNES and RJTD.

JTWC Warning #22

JTWC Warning #22

No significant changes to track or philosophy but adjusted initial intensities up based on pre-landfall intensification. The orientation of the str will produce a westward to west-southwestward track into northern Vietnam over the next 48 hours. This will allow the system to maintain Typhoon intensity until it moves into northern Vietnam near tau 24, at which point the system will begin to dissipate quickly. Hagupit is forecast to dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone over land by tau 48.

The remnants may track eastward back over water but are not expected to redevelop due to an unfavorable environment. The model trackers are in very good agreement with this forecast track.

source JTWC

Typhoon Hagupit (Nina) – September 22nd, 2008

September 22nd, 2008 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

September 22th, 2008 - Typhoon HagupitHagupit

September 22th, 2008 - Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit - Image Enhanced

Typhoon Hagupit - Image Enhanced

On September 14 a tropical disturbance formed to the northeast of Guam. Over the next few days it slowly developed, with the JMA designating it as a minor tropical depression on September 17. Later that day the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) then issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the developing tropical depression. Late the next day the JTWC designated the depression as 18W as it began to issue advisories on the depression. Early on September 19 the JMA began to issue full advisories on the depression as it moved in to PAGASA’s Area of Responsibility and was named Nina by PAGASA. Later that day both the JMA & the JTWC upgraded the depression to a tropical storm. The JMA named the storm as Hagupit, and assigned the international number of 0814.

Typhoon 18W (Hagupit) has rapidly intensified over the past 12 hours while turning increasingly westward under the steering influence of a building subtropical ridge to the north. Poleward outflow has increased ahead of a mid-latitude trough to the northeast while vertical wind shear has decreased with the development of an enhanced anticyclonic outflow layer over

The current position is based on satellite fixes from PGTW and RJTD, several recent microwave satellite passes, and radar fixes from Taiwan. The current intensity of 85 knots is consistent with Dvorak t-numbers of 4.5 from PGTW and 5.0 from RJTD. Analysis of recent dotstar dropsonde data from around the storm circulation lend high confidence to the wind field depicted in the current warning. A ragged and fairly broad eye is now evident in multispectral satellite imagery. A rather symmetric convective structure surrounds this eye. The deepest convection is located on the southern periphery of the Typhoon, where the low level circulation center has begun to interact with the high terrain of northern Luzon.

The forecast track has been nudged slighlty equatorward based on analysis of the anticipated steering flow pattern.

Typhoon Hagupit will continue to track generally west-northwestward over the next 72 hours under the steering influence of a strong and continuous subtropical ridge to the north. Vertical wind shear should remain low and poleward outflow strong through tau 24, allowing Hagupit to intensify slowly despite some disruption of the circulation through interaction with the Island of Luzon to the south. After tau 24, Hagupit will move equatorward of a syntopic scale, upper-level anticyclone center. The peripheral flow associated with this anticyclone to the north will introduce increasing vertical wind shear and begin to disrupt poleward outflow. Thus, the current forecast anticipates a weakening trend beginning around or just after tau 24 and continuing through landfall just after tau 48.

JTWC Warning #15

JTWC Warning #15

After making landfall, the Typhoon will weaken considerably. The current forecast is in good agreement with the closely-packed numerical model guidance. However, the UKMET, JGSM, and ECMWF guidance suggest that the Typhoon may follow a track slightly farther south, keeping the circulation over water for a longer period. In this case, the intensities depicted in the current forecast may be too low. However, unfavorable synoptic influences and almost certain land interaction will still produce considerable weakening between tau 48 and tau 72 even if the system skirts the chinese coast and does not track fully inland.

Under the current track scenario, Hagupit will continue dissipate below the warning threshold intensity of 25 knots by tau 96 while tracking generally westward over land.

source JTWC

Tropical Storm Hagupit

September 21st, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

September 21th, 2008 - Tropical Storm Hagupit - Chelys/GoogleHagupit

September 21th, 2008 - Tropical Storm Hagupit - Chelys/Google

Tropical Storm 18w (Hagupit) has intensified slowly over the past 12 hours while continuing generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical steering ridge to the north.
The low level circulation center (LLCC) has further consolidated, as evidenced by a more symmetric convective tructure. Vertical wind shear has decreased slightly, and recent animated water vapor imagery indicates a marked improvement in poleward outflow.

The intensity estimate of 60 knots is consistent. Convection has increased near the circulation center, although the deepest convection is still located on the western and southern peripheries of the LLCC.
Tropical Storm Hagupit has moved into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear closer to an upper level ridge axis. In addition, the flow associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) and associated TUTT cell to the northeast is enhancing poleward outflow.

Forecast track speeds have been increased slightly for the current warning. Tropical Storm Hagupit is expected to turn toward an increasingly westward track through tau 72 as the mid-latitude trough inducing the weakness in the steering ridge to the north lifts northeastward and continuous, zonally-oriented subtropical ridging builds along the poleward periphery of the tropical storm. The numerical model guidance envelope continues to shrink, lending increased certainty to the track forecast.

The current forecast track remains slightly south of the model consensus, favoring the well-performing ecmwf and ukmet solutions. Tropical Storm Hagupit will steadily intensify through tau 48 as low vertical wind shear, excellent upper level outflow, and passage over high ocean heat content take effect. Between tau 48 and tau 72, ts 18w will begin to weaken in response to decreasing ocean heat content, suppressed poleward outflow, and land interaction.

JTWC Warning #11

JTWC Warning #11

In the extended period, Tropical Storm Hagupit will progress westward into southern China under the continued steering influence of sub-tropical riding to the north. the track is expected to remain over land, which should induce dissipation below the warning threshold intensity of 25 knots by tau 120. However, a small equatorward jog would allow the system to remain over water and consequently progress closer to Hainan Island and northern Vietnam as a stronger system than currently forecast. Some adjustments to the extended forecast are likely as the anticipated orientation of the steering flow pattern during that period becomes clearer.

source JTWC

Tropical Disturbance 18W upgraded to Tropical Storm Hagupit

September 20th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

September 20th, 2008 - Tropical Cyclone HagupitHagupit

September 20th, 2008 - Tropical Cyclone Hagupit

Tropical storm Hagupit is forecast to strike China as a typhoon at about 10:00 GMT on 24 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 21.9 N, 115.4 E. Hagupit is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Hagupit’s strength (category 2) at landfall includes:

  • Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
  • Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
  • Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
  • Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
  • Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
  • Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

Hagupit - Image Enhanced

Hagupit - Image Enhanced

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