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Tropical Storm Sanvu (03W) Expected to Become Typhoon by Thursday

16.1N 140.8E

May 23rd, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Sanvu (03W) - May 23rd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm Sanvu (03W) - May 23rd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 03W

On May 17, a disturbance associated with a low presure area, and the ITCZ formed southeast of Guam. Late on May 20, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the system because of improving equator-ward outflow. Early on May 21, the JMA upgraded the low-pressure area to a tropical depression, and the JTWC also upgraded the system to a tropical depression later.

Early on May 22, the JMA upgraded the system to a tropical storm and named it Sanvu, as the tropical depression intensified even as it moved northwestward away from coastal waters of the Marianas.

As of 5pm yesterday, Tropical Storm Sanvu was still churning northwestward at 12 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. At that time, Sanvu’s center was 130 miles west-northwest of Guam, 155 miles west of Rota, 190 miles west-southwest of Tinian, and 200 miles southwest of Saipan. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. Sanvu is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles).

A tropical storm warning at that time was still in effect for Guam and Rota, while a tropical storm watch was also still in effect for Tinian and Saipan. The storm brought numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning until last night, Tuesday. NWS said that scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday night in the region.

Sanvu is expected to continue moving NW for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more northerly on Friday and recurving NNE to NE-ward on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sanvu will pass very close to Iwo To by early Saturday morning. The system is forecast to continue intensifying and will likely become a Typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Depression 17W Forms Northeast of Guam

23.8N 161.2E

October 22nd, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression 17W - October 20th, 2010

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Track of TD 17W

Tropical depression 17W, located approximately 780 nm northeast of Hagatna, Guam, has tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

Low level structure evident in recent microwave satellite imagery and a Dvorak intensity estimate of 30 knots indicate that TD 17W has formed just poleward of a tropical upper tropospheric (TUTT) cell.

The system is tracking west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue through the next 24 hours.

Thereafter, a developing midlatitude trough to the north is expected to weaken the steering ridge and induce a poleward turn into a weak steering environment. The available numerical guidance is in good general agreement with this scenario, although there is some uncertainty in the exact track given the expectation of a weak steering setup.

Unfavorable environmental factors, including persistent upper level convergence, easterly vertical wind shear, and the introduction of drier air toward the center of TD 17W from the southeast, should prevent the system from intensifying significantly and eventually result in dissipation below the 25 knot warning threshold intensity around TAU 48.

Comparative Look at Megi as Tropical Depression and Typhoon

16.4N 122.7E

October 19th, 2010 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Megi (15W) - October 13th, 2010

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Track of TY 15W

These images offer a comparative look at the tropical storm system known as Megi (15W). The still images show the system as a tropical depression on October 13th, while the animated imagery shows the system at typhoon strength on October 18th. The following is the history of the storm’s development:

Late on October 12, the JMA reported that a tropical depression had formed to the west of Guam. During October 13, the JTWC designated the tropical depression as 15W.  Later that day, the JMA and the JTWC reported that the depression had intensified into a tropical storm and named it as Megi.

On October 15, The JTWC reported that the storm had intensified into a category 2 typhoon, but the JMA were only monitoring the system as a Severe Tropical Storm.[83] [84] Later that day, the JMA reported that the storm strengthened into a typhoon.

Early on October 16 the system entered the Phillipine Area of Responsibility and the PAGASA began to issue advisories on Megi, giving it the local designation of “Juan”. That same day, Megi continued to intensify and was upgraded by the JTWC to a category 3 typhoon.

Early on October 17, the JTWC reported that Megi had intensified into a category 5 super typhoon– the first super typhoon of the season and the first since Nida in November 2009. In the night of October 17, the intensity of Megi strengthened to 895 hPa (mbar), making Megi the strongest typhoon since Typhoon Yuri in 1991, and the first Pacific typhoon to reach lower than 900 hPa (mbar) in the 21st century and the first to do so anywhere in the world since Hurricane Wilma in the Atlantic in 2005.

It was also the first tropical cyclone in the 21st century to have one-minute sustained winds of 190-mph, and the first since Hurricane Allen in the Atlantic in 1980. In the morning of October 18, Megi continued to intensify to 885 hPa (mbar), making Megi the strongest typhoon since Typhoon Vanessa in 1984. It made landfall at that intensity, the most intense landfalling storm ever recorded anywhere in the world, surpassing the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

Category One Typhoon Nida (26W) in Western Pacific – November 25th, 2009

14.4N 139.2E

November 25th, 2009 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Nida (26W) - November 25th, 2009

Typhoon Nida (26W) - November 25th, 2009

Track of TY 26W - November 25th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 26W

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Typhoon Nida (26W), located approximately 170 nautical miles south-southwest of Guam, has tracked north-northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at is 21 feet. Nida has maximum sustained winds near 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr), making it a Category One typhoon.

NASA and JAXA report that Typhoon Nida is lashing Yap State in the Western Pacific. Most of the rainfall from Nida has been between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour, with areas near the system’s center falling at as much as 2 inches of rain per hour (considered heavy rainfall). Nida is forecast to move in a northwesterly direction and continue to strengthen over the next several days.

A typhoon warning is in effect for Faraulep, a small atoll in the western Caroline Islands, located within Yap State, in the Federated States of Micronesia. This type of warning means that typhoon conditions of sustained winds of 64 knots or higher associated with the typhoon are expected in the specified coastal area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is also in effect in the Western Pacific Islands for Ulithi, an atoll in the Caroline Islands, located about 103 nautical miles east of Yap, and for Fais, one of the outer islands of the State of Yap. That means tropical storm conditions can be expected in the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Mirinae (23W) Expected to Make Landfall Over Luzon

15.9N 133.5E

October 28th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Mirinae - October 27th, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae - October 27th, 2009

Track of Mirinae - October 27th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Mirinae

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Typhoon Mirinae (23W), located approximately 305 nautical miles west-northwest of Guam, has tracked westward at 17 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 17 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery and an AMSR-E image show a significant increase in organization and intensity over the past 6 hours. A well defined microwave eye is evident in the AMSR-E pass with deep convection extending completely around the southern half of Mirinae.

Upper level analysis shows that the poleward outflow channel has linked with the mid-latitude trough to the north of Mirinae and has helped to fuel rapid intensification over the past 6 hours.

The influence from the trough on the poleward outflow will begin to diminish over the next 12 to 24 hours as the mid-latitude flow re-aligns and becomes more zonal.

TY 23W is expected to continue strengthening through TAU 72 prior to landfall with Luzon; decreasing as it tracks over Luzon into the South China Sea. Land interaction will slow Mirinae from TAU 72 through 120 as it tracks over Luzon, but the cyclone will see a slight increase in track speed upon re-entering the South China Sea.

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