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Tropical Cyclone Evan (04P) Roars Over Fiji

17.7S 177.4E

December 20th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC 04P) – December 19th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC 04P) - December 19th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 04P

On December 17, Tropical Cyclone Evan (04P) roared over Fiji as a Category 4 storm, with winds reaching up to 230 km/h (145 mph).

The system is now located approximately 400 nm south of Nadi, Fiji, and has tracked south-southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center continues to elongate and lack deep convection, and has started extra-tropical transition (ETT). Evan will continue to move south into an increasingly hostile upper-level environment and decreasing sea surface temperatures as it dissipates under warning strength in the next 12 hours and continues ETT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (04P) Hits Samoa

22.5S 154.6W

December 17th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC 04P) – December 17th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Evan (TC 04P) - December 17th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 04P

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (RSMC Nadi designation: 04F, JTWC designation: 04P) is considered to be the worst tropical cyclone to hit the island nation of Samoa since Severe Tropical Cyclone Val.

The first cyclone of the 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season, Evan developed from a tropical disturbance on December 9 north-northeast of Fiji. The storm moved east and impacted Samoa and American Samoa; Evan also hit the French islands of Wallis and Futuna and is currently active.

On December 9, the Fiji Meteorological Service’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in Nadi (RSMC Nadi) started to monitor a weak tropical depression, that had developed within the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), about 700 km (430 mi) to the northeast of Suva. Over the next two days, the depression gradually developed further in an area of low vertical windshear and favourable sea surface temperatures of about 28 – 30 °C (82 – 86 °F), as it was steered eastwards by an upper level ridge of high pressure.

At 1800 UTC on December 11, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) started to issue advisories on the system and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 04P, after 1-minute sustained winds had become equivalent to a tropical storm while the system’s low level circulation centre was rapidly consolidating. RSMC Nadi then reported early the next day that the system had become a category one tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and named it Evan, while located about 410 km (250 mi) to the west of Pago Pago on the American Samoan island of Tutuila.

Throughout December 12, Evan continued to be steered eastwards towards the Samoan islands by the upper level ridge, as it quickly intensified further with RSMC Nadi reporting at 1200 UTC that the system had become a category two tropical cyclone. At 1800 UTC the JTWC reported that the system had become equivalent to a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS) with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 120 km/h (75 mph), while it was located about 40 km (25 mi) to the southeast of Apia, Western Samoa.

Over the next 12 hours the system developed a 17 km (11 mi) cloud filled eye on visible imagery, while the systems forward motion started to slow down as it entered a weak steering environment with the upper level ridge of high pressure to the north of the system weakened and a subtropical ridge of high pressure developed to the south of the system.

At 0600 UTC RSMC Nadi reported that Evan had become a category 3 severe tropical cyclone, as it passed over the island of Upolu. During that day the system continued to intensify as started to recurve towards the west, before at 1800 UTC the JTWC reported that Evan had reached its initial peak intensity of 185 km/h (115 mph), which made it equivalent to a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. On December 16, Evan completed a cyclonic loop, and by December 17, the system strengthened into a Category 4–equivalent cyclone on the SSHS.

Tropical Storm Daphne (18P) Located West-Southwest of Fiji

28.6S 178.6W

April 3rd, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Daphne (18P) - April 2nd, 2012

Tropical Storm Daphne (18P) - April 2nd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm Daphne (18P) - April 2nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 18P

On April 2 at 0300 UTC (April 1, 11 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Daphne had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/64 kph). Those tropical-storm-force winds extend as far as 200 nautical miles (230 miles/370 km) from the center, making Daphne a good-sized storm, more than 400 nautical miles (460 miles/741 km) in diameter.

Daphne’s center was located about 340 nautical miles (391 miles/630 km) west-southwest of Suva, Fiji, near 19.8 South and 172.7 East. Daphne was moving to the east-southeast near 18 knots (20.7 mph/ 33.3 kph). Forecasters expect Daphne to continue moving to the east-southeast and maintain strength over the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Bune (19P) Shows Persistent Deep Convection – March 27th, 2011

March 27th, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Bune (19P) - March 25th, 2011

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Track of TC 19P

Tropical Cyclone Bune 19P, located approximately 345 nm south-southeast of Nadi, Fiji, has drifted southwestward at 01 knot over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection during the past 12 hours. Position confidence is high based on a 27 nm ragged eye appearing at 26/0532z in infrared satellite imagery. A 26/0629z SSMIS 37 ghz microwave image verifies this position as well.

Initial intensity is based on PGTW and PHFO Dvorak estimates of 65 knots. Water vapor imagery indicates radial outflow, and upper level analysis places the system just east of a weak upper level ridge which is ahead of a
much stronger trough.

TC 19P is in a weak steering environment and moving slowly southwestward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge (STR). The strong mid-latitude trough approaching from the west will begin to erode the STR and result in the system tracking more southward during the next 12-24 hours.

After TAU 36, TC Bune is expected to track southeastward and then begin extratropical transition by TAU 48. As the system continues to turn southeastward ahead of the trough, increased vertical wind shear and decreased sea surface temperatures will cause the system to weaken slightly prior to completing extratropical transition near TAU 72.

Tropical Cyclone 19P Tracks Southwest

24.7S 173.1E

March 24th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone 19P - March 22nd, 2011

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Track of TC 19P

Tropical Cyclone 19P, located approximately 200 nm southeast of Suva, Fiji, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots during the past six hours. The main image shows the storm as it was organizing on the 22nd, while the animated imagery shows its recent track.

Animated infrared imagery shows continuing intensification and consolidation of convection around the low level circulation center (LLCC). An SSMI image reveals abundant curved banding wrapping into the LLCC, although deep convection is suppressed over the western quadrant.

The current intensity is based on a Dvorak estimate of 35 knots. Water vapor animation shows an approaching mid-latitude trough enhancing outflow over the southeastern quadrant, which will act to deepen the system over the short term. However, the trough is also causing some inhibition of outflow over the western portion of the system, but overall 19P exists in a region of weak vertical wind shear.

TC 19P is currently steering along the western periphery of an anticyclone to the southeast but is beginning to take a more southerly track due to the influence of the encroaching upper level trough. The trough is not expected to couple with the LLCC, which will resume a southwestward track as the trough passes after TAU 48.

Additionally, strong vertical wind shear associated with a deeper mid-latitude trough, currently moving over Brisbane, Australia, will rapidly weaken and dissipate the system by TAU 72. Maximum significant wave height at 15 feet.