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Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Southeast of Madagascar and La Reunion

20.4S 49.4E

January 5th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – January 4th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 4th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 600 nm south-southeast of La Reunion, has tracked southeastward at 21 knots over the past six hours. Here, it can be seen southeast of Madagascar, which is partially visible in the upper left corner.

Maximum significant wave height is 27 feet. Animated multispectral satellite imagery reveals the system is interacting with a deep-layer baroclinic mid-latitude trough and is undergoing extratropical transition (ETT). The ETT is forecast to complete within 12 hours.

Convection from Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Over La Reunion and Mauritius, East of Madagascar – January 5th, 2013

20.1S 50.8E

January 5th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – January 3rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 4th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), can be seen east of Madagascar here. Although convection from the system is covering the islands of Mauritius and La Reunion, it is barely reaching the coast of Madagascar.

The day this image was captured, the system was reported as having maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). The system is forecast to continue moving southward before accelerating toward the southeast, with gradually decreasing wind speeds.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Tracking Southeastward at 15 Knots

20.8S 52.2E

January 4th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – January 3rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 4th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 385 nm south of La Reunion, has tracked southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a steady weakening trend for the low level circulation center (LLCC). The current intensity is based on a Dvorak estimate from PGTW that indicated 55 knots. An approaching deep layered mid-latitude trough is located to the southwest of the LLCC and has started to impact the western periphery of the system.

Upper level analysis indicates strong vertical wind shear (VWS), associated with approaching trough, will start to decouple the upper level from the LLCC and lead to an extra- tropical transition. Poor sea surface temperatures, increasing VWS and further impact from the mid-latitude trough will cause the system to finish the transition within the next 24 hours. Numerical model guidance remains in tight agreement, leading to high confidence in the forecast track.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Expected to Accelerate, Then Weaken – January 4th, 2013

13.4S 53.6E

January 4th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – January 2nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 260 nm south-southwest of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates the system remains well defined with a ragged eye but has started to elongate as the banding to the north continues to weaken. An SSMIS 91 ghz microwave image continues to show a large microwave eye with the northern eyewall becoming shallow as it further degrades.

The initial intensity is maintained at 70 knots, based on the average of Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW and KNES ranging from 65 to 77 knots. There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature in the aforementioned imagery.

Upper-level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate that TC 07S has strong poleward outflow into the westerlies to the south as well as an equatorward outflow channel which has weakened in the past 12 hours as the system drives further south.

Dumile currently lies in an area of moderate (10-20 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS). It is tracking southward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. The system is forecast to turn to the southeast as it recurves around the STR and start to accelerate in the next 12 hours, weakening slightly.

TC 07S will begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) at TAU 24, and then weaken rapidly through TAU 36 due to increasing VWS and rapidly cooling SSTs as it completes ETT. Numerical model guidance remains in tight agreement, supporting the JTWC forecast track with high confidence.

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S) Maintaining Intensity

11.1S 52.9E

January 3rd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 07S – January 2nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 07S - January 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 07S

Tropical Cyclone Dumile (07S), located approximately 215 nm southwest of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates the system remains well defined with banding wrapping into the center from the east. An SSMIS 91 ghz microwave image shows a microwave eye feature still persisting; however, the northern portion of the eyewall continues to degrade.
The majority of the deep convection is now confined to the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is maintained at 70 knots, based on the average of Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW and KNES. There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature in the aforementioned microwave imagery.
Upper-level analysis indicates that TC 07S has strong poleward outflow into the westerlies to the south as well as an equatorward outflow channel being created by an upper level trough to the north of the low level circulation center.
Dumile currently lies in an area of moderate (10- 20 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS). The system is tracking southward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the east. The system is forecast to turn to the south-southeast and then to the southeast as it recurves around the STR and starts to accelerate by TAU 24.
TC 07S is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 36 and complete ETT by TAU 48. Dumile is forecast to weaken slightly over the next 12 hours then weaken rapidly through TAU 48 due to increasing VWS and rapidly cooling SSTs. Numerical model guidance remains in tight agreement, supporting the JTWC forecast track with high confidence.

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