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Posts tagged Darwin

Area of Convection Shears to the West

February 5th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Australia - February 5th, 2009

Area of convection near Australia - February 5th, 2009

Location of area of convection

Location of area of convection

The area of convection previously located near 15.4S 125.2E, is now located near 15.5S 118.9E, approximately 475 nautical miles northeast of Learmonth, Australia.

In the image of the globe, the area of convection is visible to the right. To the left, Tropical Cyclone 13S (Gael) can be seen near Madagascar.

The low level circulation center (LLCC) has moved west offshore over the past 12 hours.

Animated water vapor imagery shows the area of convection being sheared to the West and fully detached from the LLCC.

Area of convection - enhanced image

Area of convection - enhanced image

Environmental analysis indicates strong vertical wind shear; however, off-shore water temperatures are warm.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 998mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.

source JTWC

Area of Convection Near Darwin, Australia

February 4th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Location of area of convection

Location of area of convection

An area of convection has persisted near 15.4S 125.2E, approximately 360 nautical miles west-southwest of Darwin,  in Australia’s Northern Territory.

The satellite image shows the part of the area of convection nearest to Darwin. The  inverted grayscale image shows the location of this area of convection (far left), as well as two others near Australia.

Animated water vapor imagery shows an elongated area of deepening convection that is slowly moving to the west.

The low level circulation has formed along an extension of the monsoon trough.

Environmental analysis indicates strong vertical wind shear; however, off-shore water temperatures are warm.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure at 998mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.

source JTWC

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Billy) Makes Landfall Over Australia

December 19th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Billy) - December 19th, 2008

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Billy) - December 19th, 2008

Tropical Cyclone 05S - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 05S - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 05S (Billy), located approximately 175 nautical miles southwest of Darwin, Australia, has remained quasi stationary over the past 6 hours.

It has meandered around the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, causing abnormally high tides and flooding, during the past 12 hours as the primary steering influence shifts from a near equatorial ridge to the northeast, to a subtropical ridge building along the poleward side of the system.

The cyclone will soon begin to accelerate westward as this subtropical ridging builds.

Recent animated multispectral and water vapor satellite imagery and radar data from Wyndham show a marked increase in deep convection and improved organization of the low level circulation center.

Favorable poleward outflow and passage over favorable warm water will allow the current intensification trend to continue prior to landfall.

However, the rate of intensification will likely be limited by land interaction along the western and southern peripheries of the low level circulation center.

Tropical Cyclone 05S - multispectral satellite imagery © JTWC

Tropical Cyclone 05S - multispectral satellite imagery © JTWC

As the cyclone moves inland after Tau 12, steady dissipation will occur.

Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

source JTWC

Good Possibility for Tropical Cyclone Formation off Northern Australia Coast

December 18th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection, Australia - December 18th, 2008

Area of convection, Australia - December 18th, 2008

Area of convection - enhanced image

Area of convection - enhanced image

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 70 nautical mile radius of 14.2S 128.4E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots, and the system is moving south-eastward at 6 knots.

The area of convection is located approximately 175 nautical miles south-west of Darwin, Australia.

Recent imagery depicts a low level circulation center (LLCC) that is beginning to have deep convective banding wrapping towards the center.

The system is in a region of low vertical wind shear with favorable upper level outflow support and favorable sea surface temperatures.

The current limiting factor is the system’s proximity to land, currently between 30 and 60 nautical miles from landfall. At current track and speed, landfall could occur within the next 10 to 12 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots, and minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

source JTWC