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Area of Convection Off Australia Coast Has High Probability of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

13.6S 118.3E

January 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 6th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection - January 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible in the Timor Sea, off the coast of Australia, within 120 nm either side of a line from 11.1S 121.5E to 13.4S 118.2E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 11.4S 120.9E. The system is moving westward at 09 knots.

The area of convection previously located near 11.0S 123.5E  (click here for previous images) is now located near 11.4S 120.9E, approximately 590 nm west of Darwin, Australia. Recent multispectral and enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidation of convection, with fragmented bands wrapping around a low level circulation center (LLCC).

Upper level analysis indicates this area is approximately five degrees north of an anticyclone, providing good outflow and low (10 knots) vertical wind shear. Additionally, as the system moves southward, strong gradient-induced upper level winds moving into the southwestern region of Australia should further enhance the outflow over the next 24 hours.

Sea surface temperatures are a very favorable 30-31 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. Due to increased consolidation of the LLCC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Vegetation Index of Arhem Land, in Australia’s Northern Territory

12.4S 130.8E

February 14th, 2010 Category: Vegetation Index

Australia - February 6th, 2010

Australia - February 6th, 2010

This FAPAR image portrays the vegetation index of parts of Australia’s Northern Territory, focusing on the region of Arhem Land. One of the five regions of the Northern Territory, Arhem Land is located in the north-eastern corner of the territory and is around 500km from the territory capital Darwin.

The region has an area of 97,000 km² which also covers the area of Kakadu National Park, and a population of 16,230. The area extends from Port Roper on the Gulf of Carpentaria around the coast to the East Alligator River where it adjoins Kakadu National Park.

The climate of Arnhem Land is tropical monsoon with a wet and dry season. Temperatures do not fluctuate widely throughout the year, though it can range from overnight lows of 15 degrees Celsius in the dry season (April to September) to daily highs of 33 degrees Celsius in the wet season (October to March).

In this image, taken during the wet season, the vegetation index appears highest closest to Darwin, in the upper left quadrant. As one moves southeastward, the index becomes lower, visible by the color change from red and dark green to yellow and white.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence (06S) Makes Landfall in Australia

14.2S 128.8E

December 15th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Laurence (06S) - December 13th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Laurence (06S) - December 13th, 2009

Track of TC 06S - December 14th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 06S

Enhanced image

Enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone Laurence (06S) tracked through Darwin Australia this weekend before sliding back into the Timor Sea and is now forecast to make a second landfall in Australia. The storm is forecast to make landfall north of Wyndham in the Kimberley region, then parallel the coastline while moving over land for the next couple of days, heading southwest through the northern area of the Great Sandy Desert and into the Pilbara region.

Laurence is currently located approximately 250 nautical miles west-southwest of Darwin, Australia, and has tracked westward along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level subtropical steering ridge at 6 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.

Upper-level analysis indicates the system is near the subtropical ridge axis and animated water vapor imagery shows good poleward and equatorward outflow. Accordingly, the system has intensified over the last 6 to 12 hours and an AMSR-E microwave image shows tightly wrapped banding and a microwave eye. Wyndham radar imagery also shows the wrapping convection and apparent low level circulation center, confirming the position.

TC 06S is expected to continue tracking generally west-southwestward along the northwestern coast of Australia throughout the forecast period. In the near term, an approaching mid-latitude trough will pass to the south but enable the steering ridge to remain oriented north-south, allowing the system to begin tracking south-southwestward over the next 24 hours.

By TAU 48, however, the system should weaken slightly as it interacts over land and it will turn more westward as a lobe of the steering ridge builds more southwestward. After TAU 96, the system should track back over very warm water and begin to re-intensify under favorable environmental conditions.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert North of Australia

March 30th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone formation - March 30th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone formation - March 30th, 2009

Development of area of convection © Univ. of Wisconsin

Development of area of convection

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 175 nm radius of 9.3S 129.8E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be at 23 to 28 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 9.3S 129.8E. The system is quasi-stationary.

The area of convection is located approximately 200 nautical miles north-northwest of Darwin, Australia.

Recent animated multispectral imagery indicates weak convective banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC). Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.

Enhanced image

Enhanced image

A 200 mb anticyclone has formed over the disturbance. This anticyclone is contributing to good outflow aloft and low vertical wind shear, making the upper level environment favorable for development.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

Fair Possibility for Tropical Cyclone near Northern Australia

February 26th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Australia - February 26th, 2009

Area of convection near Australia - February 26th, 2009

Convective area - enhanced image

Convective area - enhanced image

An area of convection has persisted approximately 260 nautical miles west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.

Animated infrared imagery and animated composite radar indicates a low level circulation center (LLCC) is beginning to rapidly consolidate and build deep convection near the center.

Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is under low to moderate vertical wind shear with good outflow.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures are very favorable for increased development if the LLCC moves across the Kimberly Coast into the Indian Ocean.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots and minimum sea level pressure at 1003 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is fair.

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