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Posts tagged Cocos Island

Area of Convection Persists Near Indonesia

January 23rd, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Indonesia - January 23rd, 2009

Area of convection near Indonesia - January 23rd, 2009

Position of area of convection

Position of area of convection

The area of convection previously located about 610 nautical miles north-northwest of Cocos Island is now approximately 490 nautical miles north-northwest of it.

Recent animated METSAT imagery and Quickscat data indicate a weak low level circulation, associated with flaring, disorganized convection.

The fact that the system has yet to become organized is clearly visible in both images.  In the grayshade enhanced image, Tropical Cyclone 09S (Fanele) can also be seen to the left, moving southward.

The disturbance is located in a region of upper level diffluence, and high vertical wind shear making the overall environment unfavorable for further development at this time.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

Minimum sesa level pressure is estimated to be near 1004mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains poor.

source JTWC

Area of Convection Approaches Indonesia

January 22nd, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection near Indonesia - January 22nd, 2009

Area of convection near Indonesia - January 22nd, 2009

Location of area of convection

Location of area of convection

An area of convection has persisted approximately 610 nautical miles north-northwest of Cocos Island.

The satellite image to the right shows some clouds related to the disturbance approaching Indonesia.

The image to the left, enhanced with inverted default grayshade, shows the entire area of convection (to the right). Tropical Cyclone 09S (Fanele) can also be seen (to the left) as it moves away from Madagascar and into open ocean (click here for updates on Fanele).

Regarding the convective area by Indonesia, recent animated imagery and data indicate a weak low level circulation, associated with flaring, disorganized convection.

The disturbance is located in a region of upper level diffluence, and high vertical wind shear, making the overall environment unstable for further development at this time.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.

source JTWC

Tropical Cyclone 02S Forms in the Indian Ocean

November 19th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 02S - November 19th, 2008

Tropical Cyclone 02S - November 19th, 2008

Tropical Cyclone 02S - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 02S - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 02S, located in the Indian Ocean approximately 185 nautical miles northeast of Cocos Island, has tracked east-southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours.

Recent imagery depicts a well-consolidated low level circulation center (LLCC) with improving deep convection wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation.

Although convection has decreased slightly over the past 12 hours, recent imagery shows a resurgence in convective activity with banding becoming tighter and better defined.

The LLCC lies beneath a weakly developing upper-level anticyclone in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear.

This, coupled with relatively weak ocean heat content values may serve to limit the maximum intensity of the system.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots, with 30 to 40 knot winds near the center. Maximum significant wave height is 8 feet.

The system is expected to track east-southeastward over the next 48 hours under the influence of low- to mid-level westerly flow equatorward of the system.

source JTWC

Fair Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development in Indian Ocean

November 18th, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Convective area near Malaysia - November 18th, 2008

Convective area near Malaysia - November 18th, 2008

Convective area near Malaysia - enhanced image

Convective area near Malaysia - enhanced image

An area of convection in the Indian Ocean is located approximately 360 nautical miles west-northwest of Cocos Island.

Imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with deepening convective spiral bands on the west and south sides.

The system lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, good diffluence aloft and fair poleward outflow enhanced by a mid-latitude trough.

Its maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. The minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to fair.

source JTWC

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