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Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S) Tracks West-Southwestward

21.9S 56.9E

March 20th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Cherono - March 19th, 2011

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Track of TC 18S

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S), located approximately 595 nm east of La Reunion, has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated water vapor satellite imagery shows the convection associated with the system has significantly reduced and shallowed. This is confirmed by a microwave image depicting a low level circulation center fully detached from marginal convection to the southeast.

The initial intensity is extrapolated from recent imagery showing 20-30 knot wind barbs around the periphery of the system. Upper level analysis indicates the system is now just to the south of the ridge axis in an area of moderate (25-30 kt) northwesterly vertical wind shear.

TC Cherono is expected to continue be steered by the subtropical ridge to the southeast and tracking west- southwestward, before dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water by TAU 48. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S) in Indian Ocean

15.5S 71.9E

March 18th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Cherono - March 17th, 2011

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Track of TC 18S

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S), located approximately 515 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots during the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping into a low level circulation center. The initial intensity is based on estimates of 40 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is under a point source with low vertical wind shear and favorable radial outflow. Sea surface temperatures are favorable (26 degrees celsius).

TC 18S is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a low- to mid-level steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward during the first 48 hours.

As the system intensifies, the primary steering mechanism will become more mid- to upper-level and result in a more southwesterly track for 18S.

Around TAU 72, vertical wind shear associated with an upper level trough will cause the system to begin weakening. Peak intensity has been adjusted to 70 knots from 55 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.