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View of Tropical Cyclone Thane (06B) at Peak Intensity

11.5N 80.0E

December 30th, 2011 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Thane (06B) - December 29th, 2011

Enhanced image

Track of TC 06B - December 30th, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 06B

Tropical Cyclone Thane (06B), located approximately 110 nm southwest of Chennai, India, has made landfall and tracked westward at 08 kts over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows rapidly warming convective tops and feeder bands significantly unraveled and fragmented. The system is expected to rapidly decay due to land interaction and dissipate by TAU 12.

The main and enhanced images show the system at peak intensity on December 29th as the first Very Severe Cyclonic Storm of the season, with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 150 km/h (90 mph).

Tropical Cyclone Jal (05B) Expected to Make Landfall Near Chennai, India

November 7th, 2010 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Jal (05B) - November 6th, 2010

Enhanced image

Track of TC 05B

Tropical Cyclone Jal (05B), located approximately 170 nm east-southeast of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery and an SSMIS microwave pass depict tightly curved low level banding wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with deep central convection displaced slightly west of the system center.

The current intensity has remained steady at 70 knots based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 55 to 77 knots. Maximum significant height is 22 feet.

TC Jal remains south of the ridge axis in an area of strong upper level diffluence and good equatorward outflow in the western quadrants. Vertical wind shear over the system has relaxed slightly, which may allow the system to intensify slightly before making landfall near Chennai, India within the next 12 to 18 hours.

TC 05B has been tracking along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical steering ridge and is
expected to continue along a northwestward track throughout the forecast period. The system will weaken as it tracks inland and dissipate below warning criteria (35 knots) for the north Indian Ocean basin by TAU 48. There remains a slight chance the system could re-intensify if it re-emerges in the northeastern Arabian Sea.

Convection Associated with Tropical Cyclone Five (05B) South of Irrawaddy Delta – November 5th, 2010

10.4N 86.7E

November 5th, 2010 Category: Image of the day, Rivers, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Five (05B) - November 5th, 2010

Enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone Five (05B), located approximately 500 nm east-southeast of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. The main images focuses on convection associated with the storm, south of the Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) delta in Myanmar.

The cyclone has maintained an intensity of 45 knots as it consolidates under moderate vertical wind shear. Banding features are still somewhat fragmented in enhanced infrared imagery. However, central convection continues to build.

Dvorak estimates from PGTW have steadied at a 3.0/3.0 or 45 knots over the past few fix cycles. The current position is based on imagery that places the low level circulation center within the eastern semicircle as convection shears westward.

Track of TC 05B

The system is tracking along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge located to the north of the cyclone. It will continue to track along this ridge throughout the forecast, making landfall with India after TAU 48, but not before strengthening to near 75 knots.

A decrease in vertical wind shear, favorable upper-tropospheric outflow mechanisms, and a deep pool of warm water will all support intensification. After landfall the system will rapidly weaken and dissipate prior to emerging into the Arabian Sea.  Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone 01B Forms in Bay of Bengal

April 15th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 01B - April 15th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 01B - April 15th, 2009

TC 01B - enhanced image

TC 01B - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 01B, located approximately 375 nautical miles east of Chennai, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 6 knots over the past 6 hours.

Recent imagery indicates that increased deep convection has persisted over a well organized low level circulation center (LLCC).

TC 01B has begun to increase track speed over the past 6 hours from a quasi-stationary position and is tracking to the west-northwest.

A mid-level ridge located over India and another mid-level ridge located over southeast Asia have caused a weak steering environment over the past 24 hours.

However, in the last 6 hours the increase in track speed suggests that the ridging to the west of the cyclone has become more of a dominant influence and will help to track the system to the west-northwest and eventually turn it more northward.

Upper level analysis indicates that there is subsidence on the northern periphery of the LLCC, which will hinder outflow in the poleward channel, leaving only the equatorward outflow.

Track of TC 01B © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Based on the single channel outflow and interaction with the upper level subsidence over the northern portion of the Bay of Bengal, the forecast intensifies TC 01B at a climatological rate through TAU 48 with only small increases beyond that time.

Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are favorable for increased development
throughout the forecast period. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Forming in North Indian Ocean

April 14th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Formation in Indian Ocean - April 14th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tropical Cyclone Formation in Indian Ocean - April 14th, 2009

TC Formation © JTWC

TC Formation

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within a 225 nautical miles radius of 12.7N 87.8E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 27 to 32 knots, and the system is moving northward at 3 knots.

The area of convection is located approximately 440 nautical miles east of Chennai, India. Multispectral imagery depicts a well defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with multiple deep convective bands wrapping into it, located near 12.7N 87.8E.

An AMSU-B pass indicates fragmented banding wrapping into the LLCC with the deepest convection located near the center and on the southeastern periphery.

A QUIKSCAT pass shows 20-25 knot winds wrapping around the eastern periphery and into the center of the LLCC. Upper level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located under an upper-level ridge axis that provides good equatorward and poleward outflow channels and low vertical wind shear.

Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development throughout the region. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb.

Due to increased consolidation and organization over the last 6 hours, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.

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