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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Tracking Northwestward at 10 Knots

12.3S 144.3E

May 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – May 1st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - May 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 270 nm north- northwest of Cairns, Australia, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging between 30 to 35 knots and observations in the area. Upper-level analysis reveals an unfavorable environment as strong to moderate (20-30 knots) northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS) has persisted over the system.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Much Closer to Landfall Over Australia

17.5S 147.0E

February 3rd, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - February 1st, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 70 nm east-southeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 30 nm eye and the Cairns radar depicts a well-defined eyewall. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 127 to 140 knots.

TC 11P has slightly slowed in translation speed along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to make landfall south of Cairns within the next 6 hours.

The system will begin to weaken as it tracks over land and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone by TAU 36. Maximum significant wave height is 42 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Poised to Make Landfall Near Cairns, Australia

16.7S 148.2E

February 1st, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - January 30th, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 450 nm east-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 17 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 10 nm eye, from which the initial position was based. the
initial intensity estimates range from 115 to 127 knots.

A poleward outflow channel into an upper level low to the South, along with good equatorward outflow, has allowed for rapid intensification within the past 12 hours.

TC 11P is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward throughout the forecast period.

The system should continue to intensify due to excellent outflow, low vertical wind shear, and favorable oceanic conditions.

Around TAU 24, the system is forecast to make landfall just south of Cairns and begin weakening as it tracks inland. Maximum significant wave height is 38 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) Closer to Making Landfall in Queensland, Australia

18.6S 151.1E

March 20th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) - March 18th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) - March 18th, 2010

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Track of TC 20P - March 20th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P), located approximately 510 nautical miles east-southeast of Cairns, has tracked southwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with a loss in deep convection.

However, an SSMIS microwave image indicates the deep convection has developed slightly over the last six hours though it also confirms the deep convection is still limited to the southern periphery of the system.

An upper level trough to the west has caused increased vertical wind shear (VWS) and subsidence aloft, which has contributed to the weakening of TC 20P. The initial intensity is based on persistent Dvorak intensity estimates of 55 knots.

TC Ului will continue to track southwestward to westward toward northeastern Australia as the subtropical ridge builds in to the south and east. The system will weaken under the influence of moderate VWS, prior to reaching land after TAU 24, with complete dissipation over land by TAU 48.

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) Expected to Turn West Towards Northeast Coast of Australia

13.9S 153.2E

March 18th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) - March 15th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P) - March 15th, 2010

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Track of TC 20P - March 17th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Cyclone Ului (20P), located approximately 715 nautical miles east-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked southwestward at 1 knot over the past six hours.  Upon opening the full image, the coast of Queensland can be seen to the South.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates TC Ului has attained a well-defined, symmetric, visible eye over the last 12 hours.

However, a microwave image also depicts waning deep convection throughout the system despite its well-organized structure. Accordingly, Dvorak estimates from have dropped and the system has weakened slightly to 105 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 27 feet.

The system is currently drifting southward (towards a mid-latitude trough-induced weakness in the ridge) in a competing steering environment created by the subtropical ridge to the southwest and the near equatorial ridge to the northeast.

The trough will push downstream within the next 12 to 24 hours, allowing the subtropical ridge to re-establish itself to the south of the TC. This will enable Ului to turn west towards the northeast coast of Australia after TAU 36.

The intensity should hover around 100 knots with environmental conditions remaining fairly constant through the first 72 hours before slowly weakening due to decreasing poleward outflow and less favorable ocean heat content values. The forecast closely follows the model consensus, which has changed little over the last day.

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