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Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Makes Landfall Over Bangladesh – May 17th, 2013

21.5N 90.7E

May 17th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 16th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) located approximately 53 nm southeastward of Dhaka, Bangladesh, has tracked north-northeastward at 22 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) reveals tc mahasen has made landfall northwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh and is rapidly falling apart as the system has become disorganized. Radar imagery from Kolkata, India additionally shows the rapid weakening as convection has shallowed.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Dissipating

17.0N 84.3E

May 17th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 15th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is forecast to accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies and track across northeastern india while continually

weakening as it encounters rugged terrain and high (30 to 40 knots)
vertical wind shear. The system will dissipate below 35 knots in the
next 12 hours due to these unfavorable conditions.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Weakening

18.4N 84.9E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 15th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) has weakened into a Deep Depression (although in this image it is still visible at a stronger intensity) and is located near latitude 24°N and longitude 92.5°E, about 35 km (22 mi) north of Aizawl. The storm is forecast to weaken into a Depression in the next 6 hours. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 55 km/h (34 mph), gusting to 70 km/h (43 mph).

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Approaching Bangladesh

15.2N 83.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 15th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is forecast to track northeastward along the poleward oriented subtropical ridge until westerly flow advects the system overland.

Upper level  analysis indicates an anticyclone to the east of the system  continues to move into better vertical alignment with the low level circulation center (LLCC),  leading to a decrease in vertical wind shear (VWS) to low levels (10  knots).

A slight intensification over the next 12 hours is expected as the LLCC remains in a low VWS environment, but due to the track speed and proximity to the coast of Bangladesh, this increase will be short-lived. Dissipation is expected to begin upon making landfall around TAU 24 and will be fully dissipated by TAU 36. Dynamical model guidance is in tight agreement, leading the JTWC forecast to be positioned close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence.

Intensity of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) at 45 Knots

15.2N 84.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 14th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B), located approximately 246 nm southward of Kolkata, India, has tracked north-northeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates the low level circulation center (LLCC) remains under an area of deep convection, but is difficult to identify as the organization of the convection remains poorly defined. A series of scatterometry passes support 35 to 40 knot winds near the center of the LLCC. The current intensity has been maintained at 45 knots based on Dvorak estimates and the persistent convection over the LLCC.

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