Earth Snapshot RSS Feed Twitter
 
 
 
 

Posts tagged Area of convection

Spiralled Area of Convection East of Japan

39.5N 147.8E

June 10th, 2013 Category: Clouds VIIRSSuomi-NPP

Tropical Storm Yagi (03W) – June 9th, 2013

While Tropical Storm Yagi (03W) churns to the south of Japan, a large, spiralling area of convection can also be observed to the east of the country. Atmospheric convection is the result of a parcel-environment instability, or temperature difference, layer in the atmosphere. Different lapse rates within dry and moist air lead to instability. Mixing of air during the day which expands the height of the planetary boundary layer leads to increased winds, cumulus cloud development, and decreased surface dew points. Moist convection leads to thunderstorm development, which is often responsible for severe weather throughout the world.

Area of Convection Near Australia Has High Chance of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

16.1S 150.4E

March 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – March 6th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection - March 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 17.7S 153.4E, approximately 215nm east- southeast of Willis Island, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated but consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with flaring deep convection near the LLCC and improved convective banding in the northern and southern peripheries.

An ASCAT pass reveals the overall elongated orientation of the system as it is embedded within the monsoon trough and also shows the strongest winds are located in the peripheries. Upper-level analysis continues to show a developing anticyclone near the center with good poleward and equatorward outflow.

The LLCC is currently located in an area of moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS) with areas of strong VWS located just to the north and south of the system. Sea surface temperatures are favorable at 28 to 30 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 996 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Peak Intensity Expected to be 75 Knots

20.6S 39.3E

February 20th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 19th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 19th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) (click here for previous images) is forecast to weaken due to land interaction near TAU 72, then more significant weakening as it tracks over cooler SSTs and encounters increasing vertical wind shear south of Madagascar.

The system is forecast to complete ETT by TAU 120. Overall, the dynamic model guidance is in fair agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track; however, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast due to the weak steering enviroment and uncertainties in track speed after TAU 72. The system is now expected to intensify to a peak of 75 knots by TAU 36 due to favorable conditions. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Area of Convection by Madagascar Strengthens into Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S)

22.1S 37.2E

February 19th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 19th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 19th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

The area of convection near Madagascar (click here for previous images) has now strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S). The system is located approximately 385 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked westward at 04 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates rapid consolidation over the past twelve hours with tightly-curved deep convective banding wrapping into a well- defined center. An SSMI 37 ghz image depicts a microwave eye feature and supports the initial position with high confidence. Based on the SSMI image and previous microwave imagery, the system motion has become quasi-stationary and appears to be looping.

Upper- level conditions remain very favorable with weak vertical wind shear, radial outflow and warm SST. Over the past twelve hours, the subtropical steering ridge (STR) has weakened due to an approaching shortwave trough and TC 16S is currently tracking slowly and erratically within a weak steering environment.

Dynamic model guidance supports slow track motion through TAU 48 until a deep shortwave trough deepens south of Madagascar. Thereafter, the system will accelerate southeastward while undergoing extra-tropical transition (ETT).

Area of Convection by Madagascar Remains With High Probability of Becoming Cyclone

22.3S 39.3E

February 18th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of convection – February 18th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Area of Convection - February 18th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

The area of convection previously located near 19.4S 40.0E (click here for previous images) is now located near 19.7S 41.1E, approximately 335 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with curved, deep convective banding over the eastern semi-circle. An SSMIS image depicts tightly-curved banding wrapping into a well-defined LLCC.

Recent scatterometer imagery as well as microwave- derived winds support 25 to 30 knot winds. Upper-level analysis indicates a point source near the center with near-radial outflow enhanced by an upper-level low positioned south of Madagascar. Vertical wind shear remains moderate (20 knots) and continues to hamper convective development over the western semi-circle. SST remains favorable at 29 to 30 degrees celsius.

Numerical models indicate development is likely over the next 12-24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

About Us

Earth Observation

Organisations

Archive

December 2017
M T W T F S S
« Mar    
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031

Categories


Bulletin Board


Featured Posts

Information

49


Take Action

Widgets