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Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) East of Madagascar

14.3S 53.6E

October 18th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 17th, 2012

Enhanced image

Anais (01S) gradually intensified and was upgraded into an intense tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion early on October 14, while it ws upgraded to a category 3 cyclone by the JTWC, as it started to form an well defined eye.

Late on October 15, as it started to weaken, the system’s eye started to collapse, but deep convection remained over the low level circulation center, and it was downgraded to a category 1 cyclone by October 16.

On October 17, the system weakened into a tropical storm, and the low level circulation center became totally exposed, with convection being displaced to the south due to moderate vertical wind shear from the north west. This marked the earliest formation of an intense tropical cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean, forming almost a month before the start of the season.

Eye of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 16th, 2012

7.7S 60.7E

October 16th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 14th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) - October 14th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S), located approximately 650 nm northeast of La Reunion, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows convection has continued to decrease around a ragged eye. Intensity is estimated at 102 knots. Recent water vapor imagery and upper level streamline analysis indicate TC 01S has good poleward outflow and is located just south of a ridge axis in a region of favorable (5-15 knot) vertical wind shear.

Anais is currently near the 26 degree celsius isotherm and will continue tracking into cooler waters. These cooler SSTS along with increasing vertical wind shear are expected to decrease the intensity of the system. Anais should begin extratropical transition (ET) around TAU 96 and complete ET by TAU 120.
TC 01S is tracking along the northwestern quadrant of a deep layered subtropical ridge (STR), and is expected to continue through TAU 96, when a weakness within the
STR allows the system to track more poleward. Based on current model guidance, there is high confidence in the track and intensity forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) in Southwest Indian Ocean

13S 59.9E

October 15th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 13th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) - October 14th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

On October 12, 2012, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on a system near the Chagos Islands.

Soon afterwards, RSMC La Réunion designated the system as a tropical disturbance while located roughly 70 nautical miles (130 km) to the west of Diego Garcia. That afternoon, the JTWC upgraded the system into a tropical depression, giving it the designation 01S.

The next day, RSMC La Réunion reported that the system had intensified into a moderate tropical storm and named it Anais. As the day progressed, Anais began a period of quick intensification- being upgraded into a tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion and a category one tropical cyclone by the JTWC.

Anais continued to gradually intensify and was upgraded into an intense tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion early on October 14. This marked the earliest formation of an intense tropical cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean.

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