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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Today

13.9S 144.1E

May 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – May 1st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - May 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) will dissipate below warning threshold in the next 12 hours due to poor conditions and will further unravel as it interacts with the Cape York Peninsula.

Due to the overall poor organization of the system and forecast unfavorable upper-level environment, this is the final warning on this system by the JTWC, although the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Encountering Increasing Wind Shear

12.5S 143.4E

May 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – May 1st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - May 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Dynamic model guidance is continuing to show a poor upper-level environment as Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) encounters increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) and persistent westerly flow through the forecast period. The system has weakened to a tropical depression. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Tracking Northwestward at 10 Knots

12.3S 144.3E

May 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – May 1st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - May 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 270 nm north- northwest of Cairns, Australia, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging between 30 to 35 knots and observations in the area. Upper-level analysis reveals an unfavorable environment as strong to moderate (20-30 knots) northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS) has persisted over the system.

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) Weakening

13.4S 145.5E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Animated infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) has revealed an elongating and fully-exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with convection displaced 185 nm from the LLCC. An SSMI 85ghz microwave image reveals the overall organization of the system has become increasingly poor as the convection has further displaced from the LLCC.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Over Gulf of Carpentaria

14.6S 146.9E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) is being driven westward by a mid- to high- level anticyclone over the Coral Sea, which is weakening and pulling away towards the Solomon Islands.

In anticipation of the weaker steering influence, the JTWC track forecast hedges a little bit slower and poleward, but remains close to, consensus. Intensity guidance consistently indicates rapid weakening and dissipation of the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria, primarily due to VWS.

Although animated water vapor imagery is beginning to reveal some increased subsidence over the western side of the storm, solid radial outflow persists along with a weak poleward tap. Upper level streamline analysis depicts a ridge firmly entrenched over the Gulf of Carpentaria and top end of Australia, which will keep the system under less than 20 knots of VWS along its track.

Hence the VWS values given by the guidance appear over-done, and the JTWC forecast follows a slower dissipation trend. Track confidence is high through the first 48 hours, then very low afterwards due to the uncertainty in the intensity (and hence the associated steering environment) after TAU 48

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