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Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) Still Moving Westward – March 9th, 2012

28.3S 37.2E

March 9th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) - March 8th, 2012

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Track of TS 14S - March 8th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 14S

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S), is located approximately 415 nm east-southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. The system has tracked west-northwestward at 04 knots over the past six hours.

The intensity is estimated at 40 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet. TC 14S continues to track generally westward along the periphery of a low-level subtropical steering ridge to the south. This motion is expected to continue through the forecast period.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convection becoming shallower over a still tightly-wrapped low-level circulation center. Upper level outflow has decreased significantly over the past 12 hours. Mminimal outflow and passage over a cool sea surface will lead to dissipation of the system by TAU 24.

Tropical Cyclone Irina Tracking Westward – March 8th, 2012

23.8S 38.6E

March 8th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) - March 7th, 2012

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Track of TS 14S - March 7th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 14S

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S), located approximately 470 nm east-southeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked westward at 03 knots over the past six hours. The current intensity is estimated at 45 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.

Recent animated infrared satellite imagery shows relatively shallow convection persisting over a compact low-level circulation center. tc 14s has maintained intensity over the past 12 hours under the competing influences of strong poleward outflow and a marginal sea surface temperature of 25 degrees celsius.

TC 14S continues to track westward under the steering influence of a low-level subtropical ridge positioned to the south. This westward motion is expected to continue through the forecast period. Passage over cool water and a decrease in upper level outflow will induce gradual dissipation below the warning intensity threshold of 35 knots by TAU 24.

Tropical Cyclone Irina Expected to Move Towards Mozambique

27.6S 29.5E

March 4th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) - March 3rd, 2012

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Track of TS 14S - March 4th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 14S

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S), located approximately 90 nm east-southeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows that TC 14S is regenerating deep convection and turning back into the Mozambique Channel.

Despite the recent movement away from land, rainbands in the outer periphery are generating downpours along the coast, especially between Maputo and Inhambane, Mozambique. The other concentration of heavy convection associated with the storm is displaced to the distant southwest, a product of convergence within the belt of easterlies feeding into the system.

An ASCAT image depicts an expansive area of persistent gales over the southeastern quadrant. An SSMIS image shows the improved organization in the convective banding, and the 37 ghz image reveals a developing microwave eye. PGTW upper level streamline analysis depicts a cyclone just north of Inhambane, and its associated subsidence is stifling convection over the northeastern quadrant of the storm.

The cyclone has been retrograding slowly southwest and neither filling nor deepening. Total precipitable water loops confirm a general lack of deep moisture over the northern semicircle. Sscatterometry data also confirm the lop-sided nature of the system, with expansive areas of gale force winds over the poleward semicircle and a very narrow area of gales on the equatorial side. Animated water vapor imagery indicates that the system has lost the superb equatorial outflow channel that existed 24 hours ago, but vigorous poleward outflow persists, and there is adequate outflow over the western quadrant.

The upper level cyclone is severely impinging on outflow over the northern semicircle. Water vapor animation also shows a deep mid-latitude trough tracking over South Africa that will exert an increasing steering influence on the storm during the next 24 hours, along with a boost to poleward outflow. The upper levels of the storm and the northwesterlies ahead of the trough are going to begin linkage during the next 12 hours.

Currently, Irina is being kept over the western Mozambique Channel by a low- to mid-level anticyclone directly south of Madagascar, which is part of the subtropical ridge. The anticyclone is beginning to give way and reorient eastward, allowing the system to drift back towards the center of the channel. The retreating anticyclone coupled with the southeastward draw from the approaching trough will cause a net southward movement of the storm over the next 24 hours. The majority of model guidance indicates the trough will be a near miss and not couple with the storm, passing over the system between TAU 24 and 48. Following the passage of the trough, the subtropical ridge will rebuild south of Madagascar and Irina will resume movement towards southern Mozambique, where it will maintain intensity at low tropical storm strength in the moderately favorable environment of the Mozambique Channel. Thus, the forecast continues to call for a slow reversal back towards landfall over southern Mozambique after TAU 24 and a relatively flat intensity trend through landfall.

Tropical Storm Irina Makes Multiple Landfalls Over Madagascar – March 1st, 2012

14.6S 45.0E

March 1st, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Irina (14S) - February 29th, 2012

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Track of TS 14S - February 29th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 14S

On February 22, an area of disturbed weather formed in the South-West Indian Ocean. The system steadily strengthened into a low pressure area, favorable conditions and with great convection wrapping around a circulation center allowed the system to strengthen into a tropical depression on February 25.

On February 26, RSMC La Reunion upgraded the system to Moderate Tropical Storm Irina as it continued to intensify. However, Irina made landfall on Northern Madagascar a few hours later and weakened into an overland depression. Early on February 28, Irina emerged off the western coast of Madagascar, and began to reorganize. Shortly afterwards, Irina made landfall a second time on Madagascar, this time at Northwest Madagascar. Afterwards, Irina emerged into the Indian Ocean again, and slowly began to reorganize. However, for the next few days, Irina was unable to regain Moderate Tropical Storm status, due to poor organization.

Remnants of Tropical Cyclones 13S (Gael) and 14S (Freddy)

February 11th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Freddy) - February 10th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Freddy) - February 10th, 2009

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 13S (Gael)

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 13S (Gael)

The strength and organization of TC 14S (Freddy) has decreased significantly, and it is no longer categorized as a cyclone. The image to the left shows the weakened system  west of Australia as of 0600Z yesterday.

The remnants of Freddy are also visible in the image to the right, valid at 1800Z. By comparing the earlier and later images, it is evident that Freddy has continued to weaken and become more disorganized.

Further west, TC13S (Gael) has completed extratropical transitioning. The righthand image shows the remnants of the cyclone moving away from Madagascar and La Reunion. These remnants appear even less organized than those of Freddy.

As of this time, there are no potential areas for cyclone formation in the Pacific nor the Indian Oceans.