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Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Beginning Extra-Tropical Transitioning

27S 52.0E

February 4th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) – February 3rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) - February 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 13S

Upper level analysis indicates an approaching mid-latitude trough and an upper level low to the south of Madagascar are interacting with the subtropical high to the north of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), creating high levels (30 to 40 knots) of vertical wind shear (VWS) over the LLCC. This interaction is also enhancing the steering flow, keeping Felleng on a quick but steady track to the south-southeast.

Increasing VWS and decreasing SST values will lead TC 13S to be fully extra-tropical by TAU 12. There is high confidence in the forecast track based on good model consistency. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Tracking South-Southeastward

27.4S 51.3E

February 4th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) – February 3rd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) - February 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 13S

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), located approximately 745 nm south of La Reunion has tracked south-southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows all associated convection with the low level circulation center (LLCC) has been sheared to the southeast by approximately 175 nm. Older ASCAT passes indicate the LLCC has started to expand with the strongest winds located further from the center of the system.

The system has been located over sea surface temperatures (SST) between 23 to 24 degrees Celsius, directly impacting the warm central core. Felleng has begun the extra-tropical transition process and within the next 12 hours the SST values will drop below 20 degrees Celsius, accelerating the transition to a cold core system.

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Southwest of Madagascar, Expected to Weaken – February 3rd, 2013

27.4S 50.6E

February 3rd, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) – February 2nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) - February 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 13S

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), is tracking along the western edge of a subtropical high (STH) to the east. Here, it can be seen southwest of Madagascar, which is partially visible in the upper left corner.

A shortwave trough currently digging the western flank of the system is expected to weaken the STH and cause the cyclone to track on a more southeastward direction. As TC 13S tracks further poleward, the strong VWS is expected to gradually erode the system. By TAU 36, the cyclone will commence extra-tropical transition as it gets embedded in the baroclinic zone, becoming a gale-force cold core low by TAU 48.

The available numerical guidance is in tight agreement with WBAR on the left of and UKMET on the right of the model envelope. There is high confidence in the JTWC forecast that is laid just to the left of and slightly faster than consensus. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Tracking South at 14 Knots

25.7S 50.6E

February 3rd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) – February 2nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) - February 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 13S

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), located approximately 370 nm southwest of La Reunion, has tracked southward at 14 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows the system has begun to show signs of elongation as the main convective bands are displaced eastward of the low level circulation center. This is also readily apparent on a 37ghz SSMIS microwave pass.

The initial position is based on the above animation and on the SSMIS image with high confidence. The initial intensity is based on congruent Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and FMEE. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south and west of a ridge axis in an area of moderate to strong (20-30 knot) westerly vertical wind shear (VWS).

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Tracking South-southeastward

23.2S 49.2E

February 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) – February 2nd, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) - February 2nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 13S

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) is tracking south-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the east. The system is expected to continue tracking along the periphery of this ridge throughout the forecast period, turning eastward and accelerating after TAU 48 as it tracks toward a developing mid-latitude trough to the southwest and undergoes extratropical transition.

Increasing easterly vertical wind shear associated with weak upper-level troughing to the northwest of the cyclone and the approaching midlatitude trough to the southwest should somewhat offset the impact of strong upper-level outflow and passage over warm water, resulting in a slow weakening trend over the next 36 hours.

Thereafter, passage over cooler water and increasing shear will continue to drive weakening, offset by favorable interaction with the approaching midlatitude trough. The numerical models are in good general agreement with the forecast scenario, although many have shifted to the west in the later portion of the forecast. The current forecast lies to the east of the multi-model consensus, consistent with previous forecast, but may be adjusted a bit westward on the next forecast if the numerical models continue to depict a track that lies farther to the west.

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