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Typhoon Muifa (11W) Near Japan

27.1N 129.6E

August 3rd, 2011 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - August 3rd, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - August 3rd, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), located approximately 230 nm east-southeast of Kadena air base, Japan, has tracked northwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 38 feet.

Muifa killed 2 men, as their boat was capsized in the vicinity of Hagonoy, Bulacan and Pampanga Delta. Due to the southwest monsoon enhanced by Muifa, it caused heavy rains in several parts of Luzon including Metro Manila. In Marikina 200 residents or 31 families living in communities along the Marikina River have sought shelter in evacuation centers.

Typhoon Muifa Expected to Strike Okinawa, Japan – August 1st, 2011

24.1N 131.7E

August 1st, 2011 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W) - July 28th, 2011

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Track of TY 11W - July 31st, 2011 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TY 11W

Typhoon Muifa (TY 11W), located approximately 570 nm south-southeast of Kadena air base, Japan, has tracked northward at 08 knots over the past six hours. A distinct 10 nm eye persists, and animated infrared imagery shows a recent trend toward better organization and consolidation of the convection around the system center. Maximum significant wave height is 46 feet.

Overall though, there is not much change in intensity, which continue to be based on agency subjective Dvorak assessments. Over the past 24 hours, the overall system intensity has come down 20 knots. Despite its severe intensity, TY 11W is showing diurnal intensity fluctuation. For the second consecutive day, convection waned during the daylight hours and surged during the evening hours.

Some erosion of the eyewall over the northeast quadrant occurred during the daylight ebb, but the latest available microwave imagery indicates that deep convection persists throughout the storm. The outflow situation also deteriorated during the past 24 hours, but it too is starting to improve.

Animated water vapor imagery shows an east-west oriented trough impinging on the northeastern quadrant beginning near 310000z. The trough is currently stretched along the 24th latitude and is now suppressing outflow over the northwestern quadrant. The 311200z PGTW upper level streamline analysis also reveals increased sheer over the northwest quadrant. Although the trough is impeding on the northwestern quadrant, it is enhancing outflow over the northeast quadrant. A vigorous poleward channel has set up over the northeastern sector. Equatorward outflow remains vigorous and convection over the entire southern semicircle is widespread and deep. Recent imagery confirms gale force winds extend approximately 170 nm outward over the southern semicircle.

Muifa continues its poleward track through a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weakness exists between the seasonal anticyclone over eastern China and the Bonin High, which is now retrograding southeast. The slow and erratic poleward movement will continue through approximately 20 degrees north latitude (TAU 18), and then the anticyclone will begin nudging the system on a bend to the northwest. Intensity guidance indicates that the highest shear will be encountered during the next 18 hours, just before the storm makes its westward bend. aAbove 20 degrees north latitude, vertical wind shear is expected to stay at around 15 knots, while sea surface temperatures will remain near 29 degrees through the entire track.

Ocean heat content remains the primary variable in the intensity forecast. Although sea surface temperatures remain high, the depth of the 26 degree isotherm decreases by nearly 50 per cent north of 20 degrees north latitude. Track guidance continues to come into tighter alignment. All aids indicate a high impact strike on or very close to Okinawa.

Tropical Storm Meranti (11W) Makes Landfall Over China

26.7N 119.5E

September 11th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Meranti (11W) - September 10th, 2010

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Track of TS 11W - September 10th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 11W

Tropical Storm Meranti (11W), located approximately 365 nm south-southwest of Shanghai, China, has tracked northward at 14 knots over the past six hours. A radar loop from Taiwan and animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) indicate TS 11W made landfall near Quanzhou, China around 09/21Z.

Meranti is currently tracking along the western extent of the subtropical ridge stationed south of Japan. The system is expected to continue tracking poleward as it rapidly dissipates as a significant tropical cyclone near TAU 24, due to interaction with rugged terrain along the eastern coast of China.

There is a slight chance the system may track north of Shanghai, China, and redevelop in the Yellow Sea as a baroclinic system. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Large-Diameter Eye of Typhoon Vamco

27.6N 155.3E

August 25th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Typhoon Vamco - August 22nd, 2009

Typhoon Vamco - August 22nd, 2009

Enhanced image - August 22nd, 2009

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Track of Vamco - August 24th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Vamco

Typhoon Vamco (11W), located approximately 990 nautical miles northwest of Wake Island, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours.

Recent visible satellite imagery trends indicate the system has a large eye of 46 nautical miles in diameter, has lost of most of the feeder bands, and has become much more axisymmetric.

An SSMI image shows a very well defined ring of convection around a large eye feature with no convective banding.

The typhoon will encounter an approaching midlatitude system after TAU 24, but its annular characteristics will help isolate it from the environment and will delay full extra-tropical transition.

Vamco will eventually succumb to the effects of lower sea surface temperatures and higher vertical wind shear as it finally goes extra-tropical by TAU 48. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.

Tropical Storm Vamco (11W) Forms, Tropical Depression Maka (01C) Weakens – August 18th, 2009

16.6N 158.9E

August 18th, 2009 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Formation of Tropical Storm Vamco - August 16th, 2009

Formation of Tropical Storm Vamco - August 16th, 2009

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Tracks of TS Vamco and TD Maka - August 18th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tracks of TS Vamco and TD Maka

Tropical Storm Vamco (11W) has formed in the Pacific and is located approximately 1045 nautical miles east-southeast of Iwo-To.

The system has tracked northwestward at 9 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.

Tropical Storm Vamco began forming on August 14, as an area of convectional cloudiness associated with a monsoon. While the main image focuses on the formation of Vamco, the animated image shows both Vamco, left, and Tropical Depression Maka (01C), right.

Maka is currently located approximately 320 nautical miles southeast of Wake Island, and has tracked westward at 5 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Recent animated multispectral imagery of 01C shows an exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) that has become increasingly elongated and less organized in the last 6 hours. An ASCAT pass shows a closed circulation with 5 knot winds on the south side of the LLCC and 15-20 knot winds on its north side.

Environmental analysis shows Maka is continuing to move into higher levels of vertical wind shear with sea surface temperatures remaining favorable. In the upper-level, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to the north places the system in an area of strong upper-level confluence that has suppressed outflow.