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Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) Forms by Cape York Peninsula, Australia – January 22nd, 2013

17S 138.5E

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) – January 21st, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 11P

On 17 January, TCWC Darwin reported that a tropical low had formed near the coast of Northern Australia. The system intensified into a category one tropical cyclone on 21 January (click here for previous images).

Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P), located approximately 155 nm east-northeast of Mornington Island, Australia, has tracked east- northeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The initial position is based on radar imagery with good confidence.  In the full image, the outline of the Cape York Peninsula can be observed in grey, through the convection, due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Over the past twelve hours, animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery has depicted slight weakening of deep convection near the center. However, IR imagery continues to show an extensive area of deep convection displaced to the north. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots

Radar imagery depicts weak convective banding associated with the broad low-level circulation center (LLCC). Recent observations from Kowanyama, approximately 20 nm southwest of the center, indicate sustained surface winds of only 15 to 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots.

TC 11P is forecast to track east-northeastward through TAU 12 and is expected to dissipate by TAU 12. The remnants of the system should turn southward to southwestward in response to a building high to the south and are not forecast to track over the Coral Sea. Dynamic guidance is in good agreement on turning the system southward over land but differs on the timing and degree of the turn. Due to the broad nature of the LLCC and the spread in model solutions, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Much Closer to Landfall Over Australia

17.5S 147.0E

February 3rd, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - February 1st, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 70 nm east-southeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 30 nm eye and the Cairns radar depicts a well-defined eyewall. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 127 to 140 knots.

TC 11P has slightly slowed in translation speed along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to make landfall south of Cairns within the next 6 hours.

The system will begin to weaken as it tracks over land and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone by TAU 36. Maximum significant wave height is 42 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Poised to Make Landfall Near Cairns, Australia

16.7S 148.2E

February 1st, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - January 30th, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 450 nm east-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 17 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 10 nm eye, from which the initial position was based. the
initial intensity estimates range from 115 to 127 knots.

A poleward outflow channel into an upper level low to the South, along with good equatorward outflow, has allowed for rapid intensification within the past 12 hours.

TC 11P is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward throughout the forecast period.

The system should continue to intensify due to excellent outflow, low vertical wind shear, and favorable oceanic conditions.

Around TAU 24, the system is forecast to make landfall just south of Cairns and begin weakening as it tracks inland. Maximum significant wave height is 38 feet.

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Hettie) Moves to the South

January 29th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Hettie) - January 28th, 2009 © JTWC

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Hettie) - January 28th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Hettie), located approximately 390 nautical miles southeast of Nadi, Fiji, has tracked southward at 5 knots over the past 6 hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a fully exposed and weakened low level circulation center located approximately one degree to the northwest of significantly warmed cloud tops/convection.

Twelve hour satellite intensity trends reflect a weakening system with current intensity estimates ranging from 30 to 35 knots.

A QUIKSCAT image confirms a 30 to 35 knot (flagged) system as well. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

The cyclone is forecast to track south to southwestward over the next 24 hours while remaining below warning criteria.

The system will continue to contend with excessive vertical wind shear ahead of a shortwave trough to the West, making regeneration very unlikely.

The JTWC will issue no further warnings, but will closely monitor the system for signs of regeneration.

source JTWC

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