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Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) Regenerates Along Southern Gulf of Carpentaria Coast

16.2S 138.0E

January 28th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) - January 27th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) - January 27th, 2010

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Track of TC 09P - January 27th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 09P

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09), located approximately 100 nautical miles west of Mornington Island, has tracked northwestward at 7 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet. The system has regenerated along the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria with improved consolidation and tightly curved banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC).

The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 30 to 35 knots. The system is currently located in a region of high SST (31C) and favorable OHC values. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is under an upper level anticyclone with weak vertical wind shear and good radial outflow.

The system is currently tracking northwestward along the northern periphery of a low to mid level subtropical ridge (STR) over central Australia. The STR is expected to build northwestward after TAU 12, therefore, the system is forecast to slow and turn north to northeastward. By TAU 48 a deepening shortwave trough will break down the STR and, in combination with the near-equatorial ridge, provide an eastward to southeastward steering influence.

TC 09P is expected to slowly intensify through TAU 24 due to continued land interaction, but is forecast to intensify at a 15-20 knot rate per day under very favorable conditions. After TAU 72 the system is expected to weaken as it interacts with land and should dissipate by TAU 120. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with this forecast although there are slight differences in the timing of the turn eastward.

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) Makes Landfall Near Cape Tribulation, Australia

16S 145.4E

January 26th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) - January 25th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P) - January 25th, 2010

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Tropical Cyclone Olga (09P), located approximately 40 nm north of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 4 knots over the past six hours. The cyclone made landfall near Cape Tribulation in the far north of Queensland and weakened after crossing the coast. Olga was downgraded to a Category 1 storm from Category 2. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

Animated infrared imagery shows a significant decrease in convection over the past twelve hours and surface observations throughout the area have consistently been less than gale-force strength. Therefore, the current intensity of 35 knots is supported by the PGTW Dvorak estimate and justified despite the appearance of an eye-like feature in an AMSR-E microwave image.

As for position, the Cairns radar shows a broadening low level circulation center (LLCC) and the current system position is highly uncertain due to the lack of convection in the radar signature and clouds obscuring the LLCC in the infrared imagery.

Additionally, recent observations suggest that TC 09P may even be drifting slowly southeastward as it is currently located in an opposing steering environment. Since the system has weakened, the steering level has shifted to the lower levels with the cross-equatorial westerly flow to the north becoming more of a steering influence than the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south.

Over the next 12 hours, TC Olga is expected to resume a slow, westward track and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with a westward track.
However, it appears that the models are over-initializing the intensity of the system and are subsequently moving Olga faster than the current forecast via the subtropical ridge. Finally, the possibility remains that TC 09P may re-intensify to minimal gale strength in the Gulf of Carpententaria around TAU 48.

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