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View of Tropical Cyclone 04A at Peak Intensity

8.8N 55.0E

December 27th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression ARB 02 – December 23rd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Depression ARB 02 - December 22nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TD ARB 02

Deep Depression ARB 02, or Tropical Cyclone 04A, began as a low pressure area over the Arabian Sea on 19 December and was active until 25 December, just off the coast of the Horn of Africa. This image shows the storm while it was near its peak intensity, which included winds of 55 km/h (35 mph) (3-min) and central pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa). No deaths associated with the storm have been reported.

Tropical Cyclone 04A Weakening

9.1N 56.4E

December 25th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression ARB 02 – December 23rd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Depression ARB 02 - December 22nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TD ARB 02

Deep Depression ARB 02, or Tropical Cyclone 04A, began as a low pressure area over the Arabian Sea near 7.3°N and 70.7°E on 19 December. It slowly tracked westwards, organizing itself and intensifying into a Depression by 1100 UTC of 22 December.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) upgraded the storm into a Tropical Cyclone by 0300 UTC of 23 December, followed by Deep Depression status by the morning hours of the same day. However the storm encountered a strong wind sheer on 24 December, causing its low-level circulation center to fully expose, prompting JTWC to issue the final advisory on the storm. Further weakening ensued, and the IMD downgraded ARB 02 into a low pressure area on 25 December.

Tropical Cyclone 04A Still Moving Towards Somalia

9.5N 53.6E

December 24th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression ARB 02 – December 22nd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Depression ARB 02 - December 22nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TD ARB 02

As of 0600 UTC, 24 December 2012, Deep Depression ARB 02, or Tropical Cyclone 04A, was located near latitude 8.3°N and longitude 53.8°E, about 430 km southeast of Ras Binnah.

The storm is forecast to intensify further and move west-southwestwards towards the Somalia coast in the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are at 55 km/h (35 mph) gusting to 75 km/h (45 mph). Central pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa.

Tropical Cyclone 04A Expected to Make Landfall Over Somalia

8.0N 55.8E

December 24th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression ARB 02 – December 22nd, 2012

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Track of Tropical Depression ARB 02 - December 22nd, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TD ARB 02

Deep Depression ARB 02 has strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 04A. The system is currently located approximately 280 nm southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia, after tracking westward at 17 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has maintained organization and deep convective bands around a well-defined low level circulation center. The cyclone continues to exhibit good outflow on the poleward side which is countering the negative effects of moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear (VWS), as evident on animated water vapor satellite imagery. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.

With little change in the upper level environment along the forecast track, TC 04A is expected to maintain its current intensity until it makes landfall along the northeast coast of Somalia after TAU 24. The system will dissipate over land by TAU 36 due to increased vws and land interaction.

Tropical Cyclone 04A South-Southwest of Mumbai, India, and Tracking Northward

17.2N 72.9E

November 11th, 2009 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone 04A - November 10th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 04A - November 10th, 2009

Track of TC 04A - November 10th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 04A

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Tropical Cyclone 04A, located approximately 245 nm south-southwest of Mumbai, India, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.

The cyclone can be viewed best by opening the full image, in which convection associated with the system can be seen reaching northeastward towards the Himalayas and extending far south down the coast.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a TMI 37 ghz image depict a large monsoon-like circulation with improved convective banding over the north semi-circle and weak banding elsewhere.

The low-level circulation center has slowly consolidated under favorable poleward venting ahead of a midlatitude shortwave trough propagating over the western Arabian Sea, however, the current intensity has been held steady based on estimates of 35 knots and the 35-knot unflagged scatterometer winds.

TC 04A is forecast to continue tracking northward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and should track under increasing vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the aforementioned midlatitude shortwave trough. Available model guidance are in good agreement through TAU 48 and support this northward track philosophy.

The system should intensify 10-15 knots over the next 24-36 hours but is likely to weaken quickly after TAU 24 due to strong VWS in excess of 50 knots and interaction with land after TAU 36. TC 04A is expected to dissipate over land between TAU 48 and 72.

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