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Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) East of Madagascar

14.3S 53.6E

October 18th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 17th, 2012

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Anais (01S) gradually intensified and was upgraded into an intense tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion early on October 14, while it ws upgraded to a category 3 cyclone by the JTWC, as it started to form an well defined eye.

Late on October 15, as it started to weaken, the system’s eye started to collapse, but deep convection remained over the low level circulation center, and it was downgraded to a category 1 cyclone by October 16.

On October 17, the system weakened into a tropical storm, and the low level circulation center became totally exposed, with convection being displaced to the south due to moderate vertical wind shear from the north west. This marked the earliest formation of an intense tropical cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean, forming almost a month before the start of the season.

Eye of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 16th, 2012

7.7S 60.7E

October 16th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 14th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) - October 14th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S), located approximately 650 nm northeast of La Reunion, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows convection has continued to decrease around a ragged eye. Intensity is estimated at 102 knots. Recent water vapor imagery and upper level streamline analysis indicate TC 01S has good poleward outflow and is located just south of a ridge axis in a region of favorable (5-15 knot) vertical wind shear.

Anais is currently near the 26 degree celsius isotherm and will continue tracking into cooler waters. These cooler SSTS along with increasing vertical wind shear are expected to decrease the intensity of the system. Anais should begin extratropical transition (ET) around TAU 96 and complete ET by TAU 120.
TC 01S is tracking along the northwestern quadrant of a deep layered subtropical ridge (STR), and is expected to continue through TAU 96, when a weakness within the
STR allows the system to track more poleward. Based on current model guidance, there is high confidence in the track and intensity forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 34 feet.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) in Southwest Indian Ocean

13S 59.9E

October 15th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) – October 13th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Anais (01S) - October 14th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

On October 12, 2012, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on a system near the Chagos Islands.

Soon afterwards, RSMC La Réunion designated the system as a tropical disturbance while located roughly 70 nautical miles (130 km) to the west of Diego Garcia. That afternoon, the JTWC upgraded the system into a tropical depression, giving it the designation 01S.

The next day, RSMC La Réunion reported that the system had intensified into a moderate tropical storm and named it Anais. As the day progressed, Anais began a period of quick intensification- being upgraded into a tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion and a category one tropical cyclone by the JTWC.

Anais continued to gradually intensify and was upgraded into an intense tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion early on October 14. This marked the earliest formation of an intense tropical cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone One (01S) in Indian Ocean

9.1S 62.1E

October 13th, 2012 Category: Fires, Lakes

Tropical Storm One (01S) – October 12th, 2012

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Track of Tropical Storm One (01S) - October 12th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 01S

Tropical Cyclone One (01S), located approximately 170 nm southwest of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery reveals a strengthening symmetric system with deep convection wrapping into a low level circulation center. Also, a microwave eye has recently formed. The initial intensity of 45 knots is based on the high end of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots.

There is high confidence in the initial position based on the eye feature. Upper-level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate 01S is in a favorable environment just north of a ridge axis in an area of low (5 to 15 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS) with good radial outflow.

TC 01S is expected to continue tracking southwestward under the influence of a near equatorial steering ridge (NER) to the southeast. TC 01S should intensify through TAU 72, as environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable. After TAU 72, VWS is is expected to increase, and sea surface temperatures will decrease, resulting in gradual weakening the system. Dynamic models are in good agreement, and forecast confidence is high. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Anja (01S) East-Northeast of La Reunion

16.1S 66.0E

November 17th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anja - November 16th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Anja - November 16th, 2009

Track of TC 01S - November 10th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01S

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Tropical Cyclone Anja (01S), located approximately 715 nm east-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked south-southwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.

Animated infrared imagery shows Anja has maintained a small (just over 60 nm in diameter) but compact symmetry with annular characteristics.

The cyclone is being steered along the western boundary of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east. Upper level analysis indicates the system is directly under the ridge axis in a zone of low vertical wind shear. Animated water vapor imagery shows good radial outflow overhead.

TC 01S is expected to maintain its current intensity over the next 12 hours as it crests the western edge of the steering ridge. After TAU 12, it will begin to track over colder water and shift to a more southeastward track. This transition is in response to the approach of a mid latitude trough from the southwest.

At this stage, Anja will also begin to rapidly weaken and accelerate southeastward as it gets exposed to the strong westerly vertical wind shear. This will coincide with the cyclone’s transition into an extra tropical (ET) system with full ET status by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is in close agreement with this track forecast with the sole exception of GFS that is significantly right of the envelope from TAU 12.

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