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Posts tagged 01B

Intensity of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) at 45 Knots

15.2N 84.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B), located approximately 246 nm southward of Kolkata, India, has tracked north-northeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates the low level circulation center (LLCC) remains under an area of deep convection, but is difficult to identify as the organization of the convection remains poorly defined. A series of scatterometry passes support 35 to 40 knot winds near the center of the LLCC. The current intensity has been maintained at 45 knots based on Dvorak estimates and the persistent convection over the LLCC.

Cyclonic Storm Mahasen (01B) Forecast to Maintain Intensity

14.1N 82.9E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is located near latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°E, about 850 km (530 mi) northwest of Portblair, 600 km (370 mi) south-southwest of Kolkata, 380 km (240 mi) southeast of Paradip and 750 km (470 mi) southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Chittagong by late hours of 16 May. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is at 990 hPa. Dvorak intensity of the storm is at T3.0.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Moving Closer to Bangladesh

14.2N 84.3E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

As of 1730 IST (1200 UTC), May 14 2013,  Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) was located near latitude 14.5°N and longitude 86°E, about 850 km northwest of Port Blair, 460 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, 650 km south-southeast of Paradip and 1060 km southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Chittagong by late hours of 16 May. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 75 km/h (45 mph), gusting to 95 km/h (60 mph). Estimated minimum central pressure is at 996 hPa.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Expected to Intensify

13.8N 81.3E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Model guidance indicates Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) will remain on a general northeasterly track under the influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) in the eastern portion of the Bay of Bengal.

Favorable sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius) along the forecast track and improving upper level support (increasing divergence and decreasing VWS), will help to support a steady intensification through TAU 48. Increasing track speeds and VWS as TC 01B moves north of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis will start to weaken the system prior to landfall around TAU 72.

Beyond landfall, the low level circulation center (LLCC) will quickly weaken and dissipate as it tracks through Bangladesh into northern Myanmar. Dynamic model guidance has come into good agreement with the forecast track to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Tracking Northeast

14.2N 81.5E

May 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

The low level circulation center (LLCC) of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) has been steadily tracking to the northeast under the influence of the subtropical ridge (STR) to the east of the system. Vertical wind shear (VWS) has started to decrease and is currently at moderate levels (15 to 20 knots), allowing for building convection.