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Tropical Cyclone Anja (01S) East-Northeast of La Reunion

16.1S 66.0E

November 17th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Anja - November 16th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Anja - November 16th, 2009

Track of TC 01S - November 10th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01S

Enhanced image

Enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone Anja (01S), located approximately 715 nm east-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked south-southwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.

Animated infrared imagery shows Anja has maintained a small (just over 60 nm in diameter) but compact symmetry with annular characteristics.

The cyclone is being steered along the western boundary of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east. Upper level analysis indicates the system is directly under the ridge axis in a zone of low vertical wind shear. Animated water vapor imagery shows good radial outflow overhead.

TC 01S is expected to maintain its current intensity over the next 12 hours as it crests the western edge of the steering ridge. After TAU 12, it will begin to track over colder water and shift to a more southeastward track. This transition is in response to the approach of a mid latitude trough from the southwest.

At this stage, Anja will also begin to rapidly weaken and accelerate southeastward as it gets exposed to the strong westerly vertical wind shear. This will coincide with the cyclone’s transition into an extra tropical (ET) system with full ET status by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is in close agreement with this track forecast with the sole exception of GFS that is significantly right of the envelope from TAU 12.

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) is dissipating

October 21st, 2008 Category: Tropical Cyclones

October 18th - 21th, 2008 - Indian Ocean Infrared AnimationAsma

October 18th - 21th, 2008 - Indian Ocean Infrared Animation

October 21st, 2008 - Tropical Storm Asma (01S)

October 21st, 2008 - Tropical Storm Asma (01S)

Tropical Cyclone 01S (ASMA) located approximately 575 nm north-northeast of La Reunion, has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past six hours. The cyclone has weakened over the past 12 hours while tracking over an area of marginal sst and increased vertical wind shear.

Recent animated Meteosat-5 imagery and a 210352 SSMIS image depict a fully exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) moving west of the significant convection which is quickly waning under the influence of strong vertical wind shear. The current intensity is based upon dvorak estimates of 25 knots from fmee, knes and pgtw and a recent qscat pass showing 30 to 35 knot winds near the LLCC. TC 01S will track generally westward through tau 24 under the steering influence of low to mid- level subtropical ridging to the south.

The system will continue weakening due to increased vertical wind shear and decreasing SST and ultimately dissipate over water near tau 24.

source JTWC

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) moves towards Madagascar – October 20th, 2008

October 20th, 2008 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) - October 20th, 2008

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) - October 20th, 2008

As of 9:00P.M. GMT, Tropical Storm Asma was located about 1380km (857mi) north-northeast of La Reunion in the southern Indian Ocean, reported the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone Asma (01S) - enhanced image

It is moving southwest at 15km/h (9mph), with maximum sustained winds of 65km/h (40mph) and higher gusts of up to 83km/h (52mph). It is expected to intensify slowly due to decreased vertical wind shear, although low ocean temperatures should prevent it from intensifying aggressively. The storm’s maximum significant wave height is 5.2m (17 ft). At the moment, the only threatened land mass is Madagascar.