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Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Weakening into Low Pressure Area Since Landfall

22.2N 90.3E

May 17th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 16th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

As of 0100 IST (1930 UTC), 17 May 2013, Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B)  had weakened into a Depression and was located near latitude 25°N and longitude 93.5°E, about 40 km (25 mi) west-northwest of Imphal. The storm is forecast to weaken into a low pressure area in the next 12 hours. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 45 km/h (28 mph), gusting to 65 km/h (40 mph).

The system made landfall over the Bangladeshi coast about 30 km (19 mi) south of Feni on May 16. In preparation for the storm, large-scale evacuations were recommended for parts of Myanmar; however, this ultimately resulted people overcrowding boats to escape. As a result, one or several vessels capsized, killing at least eight people. The storm’s expansive cloud mass also brought unsettled weather to Sri Lanka, Thailand, and southeastern India. Severe storms in India and Sri Lanka were responsible for at least 15 fatalities and significant damage; one person was killed in Thailand.

Cyclonic Storm Mahasen (01B) Forecast to Maintain Intensity

14.1N 82.9E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is located near latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°E, about 850 km (530 mi) northwest of Portblair, 600 km (370 mi) south-southwest of Kolkata, 380 km (240 mi) southeast of Paradip and 750 km (470 mi) southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Chittagong by late hours of 16 May. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is at 990 hPa. Dvorak intensity of the storm is at T3.0.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Expected to Intensify

13.8N 81.3E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Model guidance indicates Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) will remain on a general northeasterly track under the influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) in the eastern portion of the Bay of Bengal.

Favorable sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius) along the forecast track and improving upper level support (increasing divergence and decreasing VWS), will help to support a steady intensification through TAU 48. Increasing track speeds and VWS as TC 01B moves north of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis will start to weaken the system prior to landfall around TAU 72.

Beyond landfall, the low level circulation center (LLCC) will quickly weaken and dissipate as it tracks through Bangladesh into northern Myanmar. Dynamic model guidance has come into good agreement with the forecast track to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Forecast to Maintain Intensity

11.0N 81.7E

May 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 12th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is located near latitude 12°N and longitude 86°E, about 800 km northwest of Car Nicobar, 650 km northeast of Trincomalee, 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1280 km south-southwest of Chittagong. The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northwards during the next 12 hours, thereafter northeastward towards the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 75 km/h (45 mph), gusting to 95 km/h (60 mph). Estimated minimum central pressure is at 996 hPa.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Forecast to Maintain Intensity

12.7N 86.3E

May 12th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 10th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 11th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is locatedabout 600 km west-southwest of Car Nicobar, 700 km northeast of Trincomalee, 850 km southeast of Chennai and 1450 km south-southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity in the next 24 hours, and move northwestwards during the next 36 hours, recurving thereafter northeast towards the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 75 km/h (45 mph), gusting to 95 km/h (60 mph). Estimated minimum central pressure is at 996 hPa.

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