Typhoon Megi (15W) Expected to Intensity and Make Landfall Over Luzon – October 16th, 201020.0N 130.0E
Typhoon Megi (15W) is located approximately 780 nm east of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked northwestward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 27 feet.
Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery and an AMSU microwave image depict a well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with tightly-curved banding.
Animated water vapor imagery continues to indicate good overall outflow with some improvement along the northwest quadrant as the tutt low, previously located near 20N 130E, begins to fill and move northwestward.
The current intensity of 95 knots is slightly higher then Dvorak estimates of 90 knots from PGTW and RJTD based on an improved banding signature in IR imagery over the past 6 hours.
TY 15W is currently tracking northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge (STR) toward a weakness associated with a major mid-latitude shortwave trough. As the trough continues to propagate northeastward, the STR is expected to reorient and re-build to the west, allowing the system to turn westward between TAU 24 and TAU 36.
Megi is forecast to continue to intensify under favorable upper level and oceanic (high SST and high ocean heat content) conditions as it approaches Luzon. The system is expected to make landfall over northern Luzon between TAU 48 and TAU 72 at or near super typhoon intensity and should weaken considerably due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Luzon. After TAU 72, Megi is expected to re-emerge into the south China Sea at typhoon intensity and track westward toward Hainan.