Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Expected to Intensify to 90-knot Peak – March 10th, 201321S 154.6E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge and forecast to continue to this track through the next two days. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.
After TAU 48, an extension of the subtropical ridge to the east is expected to amplify and assume steering, giving Sandra a slightly more southern component. The currently favorable environmental factors will allow TC 19P to intensify to a peak of 90 knots by TAU 48.
After TAU 48, sharply increasing VWS and decreasing sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the system. Dynamic model guidance remains in fair agreement with slight differences in track speed and the extent of the southern track. Forecast confidence remains high based upon the fair agreement of the dynamic models.